Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary September 9-110256874

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global September 9Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiroki YagiResearch Associate Hiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5412 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Min DaiStrategist Min.Dai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7983 Weak inflation data in China amplify concerns; Japan 2Q24 GDP revised down; soft UK report on jobs support gilt rally; USTs twist-flatten; USD gains against G10 FX; PBoC and Norges Bank sign MOU ; DXY at 101.65 (0.5%); US 10y at 3.700% (-0.8bp).• Weak CPI and PPI data in China amplify household spending and growth concerns and raise deflation risk, sending the yuan lower (USD/CNY: 0.2%; USD/CNH: 0.3%).• Japan 2Q24 GDP is unexpectedly revised down to 2.9% SAAR (C: 3.2%; Preliminary: 3.1%), though with limited impact on JPY as the overall view of a recovery led by domestic demand remains intact.• Soft UK labor data with the REC Report on Jobs showing permanent placements accelerating their decline alongside further slowing in earnings; gilts rally (2y: -7bp), outperforming European duration and USTs ahead of further UK employment data set to be released on Tuesday.• Mild moves in Treasuries during a light-data session, with the curve twist-flattening in a slight reversal of the post-nonfarm payrolls moves as market participants await CPI data later this week. • USD (DXY USD Index: +0.5%) extends its gains, strengthening against almost all G10 currencies alongside the rise in the policy-sensitive 2y UST yields (+2bp) as market-implied pricing for September continues to price closer to a 25bp cut.• PBoC Governor Pan and Norges Bank Governor Bache sign a Memorandum of Understanding to enhance information exchange and cooperation on economic developments, monetary policy, and financial stability.Please refer to our latest Global Macro Strategist (Super Size Me), Global EM Strategist (Will a Cut Cut it?), as well as our recent publications and collaborations (LatAm Macro Strategy: Trading US Growth Prospects; Global Macro Strategy: Global FX Positioning: Short EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF Preferred Positions in G10).Developed Markets United States: A data-light day alongside a lack of commentary from policymakers around the globe left market participants to continue to digest Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data and await key data releases coming up in the week.Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures,