Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary September 13-110318978

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global September 13Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCLenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiroki YagiResearch Associate Hiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5412 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Gek Teng KhooStrategist Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303 STIR pricing implies higher probability of a 50bp cut in September; USTs bull-steepen; demand for long-end JGBs; China yields fall ahead of activity data; ECB's Lagarde open to October cut if significant changes in data; THB rallies; DXY at 101.13 (-0.2%); US 10y at 3.651% (-2.3bp).• Market participants revitalize the prospect of a 50bp September Fed cut amid speculative articles which weigh the case for a larger rate cut; market implied probability for a 50bp cut in September reaches 40% intraday. • USTs bull-steepen alongside the repricing lower of the September Fed meeting, further supported by University of Michigan 1y Inflation Expectations which fall for the fourth consecutive month, and lower-than-expected import prices.• JGBs bull-flatten in a data-light session with strong demand for the long end (30y: -4bp) ahead of next week’s FOMC and BoJ meetings.• China 10y CGB yields fall below 2.1% to a new low of 2.07% ahead of Saturday’s release of August activity data amid concerns of weakening domestic demand and growth.• ECB President Lagarde says the ECB would consider an October rate cut “if there is a significant change relative to [the ECB’s] baseline;” Bunds twist-steepen (2y: -1bp) but underperform USTs.• THB rallies 0.5% intraday as gold prices (+1.0%) reach a record high, but partially pares gains after the BOT says they will ensure the baht will not move too excessively.Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (BoE Preview: Life After Data Dependency; US Economics & Global Macro Strategy: FOMC Preview: September Meeting; EM Fixed Income Flows Update: Where Supply Meets Demand; Podcast | Global: The Global Macro Guide: September 13th).The main G10 central bank events in the week ahead are monetary policy meetings Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and m