贝莱德年中期全球展望（英）

BlackRock InvestmentInstituteFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.2024 Midyear GlobalOutlookWaves of transformationBIIM0724U/M-3698250-1/1622024 Midyear OutlookFOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, LATIN AMERICA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA.FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES.The world could be undergoing a transformation on par with the Industrial Revolution – thanks to a potential surge in investment in artificial intelligence (AI), the low-carbon transition and a rewiring of global supply chains. But the speed, size and impact of that investment is highly uncertain. And it comes against an unusual economic backdrop post-pandemic: sticky inflation, higher interest rates, weaker trend growth and high public debt. We think taking risk by leaning into the transformation and adapting as the outlook changes will be key.Philipp HildebrandVice Chairman — BlackRockSummary IntroTransformation ahead?Weighing scenariosThemesGetting realLeaning into riskSpotting the next wave23-43 4 5-7567Jean BoivinHead — BlackRock Investment InstituteVivek PaulGlobal Head of Portfolio Research — BlackRock Investment InstituteFocusAI buildoutGlobal electionsInfrastructureDemographicsJapanReady to adaptViews summary8-14 8-91011 12131415The new regime of greater macro and market volatility has taken hold, shaped by supply constraints like shrinking working-age populations. The result? Higher inflation and interest rates amid weaker growth relative to the pre-pandemic era – and elevated public debt. But now investment opportunities transcend the macro backdrop. We see waves of transformation on the horizon, driven by five mega forces – or structural shifts. We see three of them spurring major capital spending: the race to build out AI, the low-carbon transition and the rewiring of supply chains. The size, speed and impact of that investment is highly uncertain, but we think it could transform economies and markets like past technological revolutions. Together with BlackRock’s portfolio managers, we designed five starkly different scenarios to assess the near-term outlook, recognizing it could quickly change.Before the pandemic, low inflation allowed central banks to slash interest rates and make massive asset purchases to buoy the economy. That boosted the financial economy – and helped drive gains across bonds and stocks. In this new regime, the real economy matters more. Our first theme is Getting real. We see the biggest opportunities in the real economy as investment flows into infrastructure, energy systems and technology – and the people driving them. We think companies may need to revamp business models and invest to stay competitive. For