Kantar-2024年二季度快速消费品（英）

FMCG PulseQ2 2024The GDP numbers released by the Government of India a few days ago, point to a strong and robust economic growth. The 8.2% growth for the Ɏnancial year of 2023-24, outpaced the 2022-23 growth which was at 7%. During the same time, the BSE Sensex has registered a In our previous edition, we called out a subdued performance for FMCG, at least until the Q3 of 2024, during which we anticipate seeing the genesis of a turnaround. If anything, the ɏatness of the Ɏrst calendar quarter of 2024 is a testament to that. Much of the annual growth that we had talked about in the previous paragraph is a result of the super-strong Q2 & Q3 numbers in 2023, which were The humungous Q2 of 2023 will continue to keep the Q2 ‘24 growth in check, because of the base eɋect, and it is likely that we may even see a slight dip in the next quarter. While there is deɎnite economic prosperity, we still maintain caution for FMCG.some of the strongest numbers put up in the recent quarters. 25% growth, while the NIFTY 50 index had jumped by 28%. FMCG value too has jumped by 10.2% in FY ’24, and even after removing atta, a category which had caused quite a few ɏuctuations in the FMCG numbers, value growth is at a robust 9.4%.FMCG Quarterly Growth (Calendar Quarters)BEATING EXPECTATIONS?Caution to continue6.6%6.1%12.8%13.7%17.3%13.8%5.4%5.4%-0.9%-0.3%2.1%4.1%8.2%6.8%5.2%5.2%Q2 '22Q3 '22Q4 '22Q1 '23Q2 '23Q3 '23Q4 '23Q1 '24Value GrowthVolume GrowthFigure 1P.S PradeepThe rural marchA Brightstar in this year is the resurgence of the rural market. Rural’s growth started trailing Urban’s growth since the last calendar quarter of 2022, and Urban raced ahead while Rural continued to limp its way for the most part of 2023. Unfortunately, the Urban market’s trajectory communicates stress. It did not see growth for three straight quarters, and it is contending with a huge Q2 2023 base. Therefore, Urban is likely to remain under stress, while Rural may consolidate its position in Q2. With continuity in the Government, we expect greater stability in the market and fewer changes to the interim budget proposed at the beginning of the year, which had good rural focus. We should also bear in mind that more states are heading for polls in the coming months, and the second half should only see a rise in populist measures for the rural market. Since the Election results are out, we want to modify this paragraph a bit. Here is the revised paragraph: However, what is yet unclear are the Rabi harvests. Central India, where bulk of the rural populus resides, received excess rainfall in the year, South India, a prominent rice, and spice producer has received below-par rainfall till now. There are reports that rabi harvests are likely to be hit this year. The eɋects of this will be felt towards the second half more, but certain rural markets could turn on the caution switch already. Even with that, we do expect Rural to maintain better growth levels compared to Urban for the reminder of th