国际清算银行-新冠肺炎养老金提取和普遍保障养老金对智利未来退休人员收入的影响（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1176 The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the Universal Guaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in Chile by Carlos Madeira Monetary and Economic Department March 2024 JEL classification: D14, H55, O54 Keywords: Pension wealth, Covid pandemic, Fiscal costs BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) The effect of Covid pension withdrawals and the UniversalGuaranteed Pension on the income of future retirees in ChileCarlos Madeira∗December 2023AbstractChile implemented large pension withdrawals during the Covid pandemic. Afterwards, Chileincreased non-contributory benefits in a quasi-universal scheme. Simulating future pensions, Ishow that the average loss in contributory pension income is 27.9%, with losses of 23.9% and31.4% for men and women, respectively.After accounting for public transfers, the averageloss in total pension income is just 6.2%, with losses of 7.5% and 5.2% for men and women,respectively. Current retirees lost just 1.1% of their pension income after accounting for thegovernment transfers. The state may end up covering 92% of the total value of the pensionwithdrawals through increased transfers.JEL Classification: D14; H55; O54.Keywords: Pension wealth; Covid pandemic; Fiscal costs.Declarations of interest: none.∗Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and Central Bank of Chile, carlos.madeira@bis.org. The views andconclusions presented in this paper are exclusively those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position ofthe BIS or the Central Bank of Chile. All errors are my own.11IntroductionDuring the Covid pandemic, at least 31 countries allowed some pension withdrawals as a measureto support distressed households (OECD 2021, Madeira 2022a, Cespedes et al 2023). Chile wasamong the few countries for which the pension withdrawals during the pandemic could be madewithout any conditions or urgency requirements. However, despite other government transfers topoor households and job retention programs (Madeira 2022b), the Chilean pension withdrawalsin terms of the pre-pandemic GDP were twice as large as those of any other country (OECD2021). The Chilean withdrawals represented a total rundown in pension assets of around 20% ofGDP and reduced the contributory pensions of almost 11 million workers (Evans and Pienknagura2021, Fuentes et al.2021, Fuentes et al.2023).Therefo