豆粕：到底了吗？

创元期货创元期货行情回顾3,5003,6003,7003,8003,9004,0004,1004,2004,3004,4004,5002023-11-012023-11-152023-11-292023-12-132023-12-27国内豆粕现货报价随盘面继续下跌（元/吨）山东江苏广东广西-200-10001002003004005006005-206-96-297-198-88-289-1710-7 10-27 11-16 12-6 12-26 1-152-42-24豆粕3-5价差201820192020202120222023创元期货美国：400420440460480500520540560123456789101112NOPA美国月度大豆压榨量（万吨）202320182019202020212022100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000220,000123456789101112NOPA美国月度豆油库存（千磅）2018201920202021202220235001,5002,5003,5004,5005,5006,5009-19-30 10-2911-2712-26 1-24 2-22 3-22 4-20 5-19 6-17 7-16 8-14当前市场年度美豆销售进度（万吨）2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232023-202405001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0009-19-30 10-2911-2712-26 1-24 2-22 3-22 4-20 5-19 6-17 7-16 8-14当前市场年度美豆对华累计销售量（万吨）2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232023-2024➢ 压榨需求整体依旧偏好，但存在边际转弱。豆油端：受益于生柴需求提振，美国豆油消费旺盛。豆粕端：因阿根廷2023年初大幅减产可供出口向全球的豆粕数量锐减，美国豆粕接替其部分市场份额，出口数量增加推升国内现货报价。豆粕需求旺盛同样刺激美国国内压榨行业开机率持续维持高位。➢ 出口销售不佳，无利好驱动最新周度出口销售数据环比下滑；累积出口销售数量（对全球）较去年同期仍有约700万吨减量（虽在全年出口目标不断下调下，当前进度基本与往年同期持平）。创元期货巴西：➢ 播种结尾，大部分大豆仍在关键生长期截至12月23日，巴西大豆播种率为96.8%；36.8%大豆处于萌芽期，21%处于开花期，39.6%处于灌浆期。➢ 降水改善，天气预报向好发展从短期天气预报来看，除南马托格罗索州降水依旧偏少外，其他产区降水均获得明显恢复。1月降水预报来看，预计降雨会更加频繁，有助于土壤水位恢复，有利于处于需水量较大阶段的作物。Soja - Safra 2023/24(Esses 12 estados correspondem a 96% da área cultivada)Semeadura202231/Dec23/Dec30/DecTocantins100.0%95.0%99.0%Maranhão73.0%57.0%65.0%Piauí99.0%88.0%95.0%Bahia100.0%90.0%95.0%Mato Grosso100.0%99.9%100.0%Mato Grosso do Sul100.0%100.0%100.0%Goiás99.0%98.0%99.0%Minas Gerais100.0%98.0%99.0%São Paulo100.0%100.0%100.0%Paraná100.0%100.0%100.0%Santa Catarina100.0%92.0%92.0%Rio Grande do Sul95.0%96.0%97.0%12 estados98.4%96.8%97.9%Colheita*202231/Dec23/Dec30/DecTocantins0.0%0.0%0.0%Maranhão0.0%0.0%0.0%Piauí0.0%0.0%0.0%Bahia0.0%0.0%0.0%Mato Grosso0.1%0.1%0.2%Mato Grosso do Sul0.0%0.0%0.0%Goiás0.0%0.0%0.0%Minas Gerais0.0%0.0%0.0%São Paulo0.0%0.0%0.0%Paraná0.0%0.0%0.0%Santa Catarina0.0%0.0%0.0%Rio Grande do Sul0.0%0.0%0.0%12 estados0.0%0.0%0.0%EstadoSemana até:2023EstadoSemana até:2023创元期货阿根廷：➢ 新作播种顺利，降水有利大豆生长：截至1月3日，阿根廷大豆播种进度达到85.8%。① 阿根廷大豆作物状况评级较差为2%（去年40%）；一般为56%（去年53%）；优良为42%（去年7%）。② 土壤水分9%处于短缺到极度短缺（去年46%）；90%处于有益到适宜（去年54%），1%处于过剩（去年0%）。➢ 从未来两周天气预报来看，核心产区呈现良好降水势头，对播种的有序推进及大豆的生长发育均处于有利条件。➢ 阿根廷提高豆油、豆粕关税这一举动短期内对全球市场影响较小，且有利于阿根廷国内大豆出口积极性增加。创元期货国内：油厂库存压力依旧较大02004006008001,0001,2001,400123456789101112国内大豆月度进口量及到港预估（万吨）20232024201920202021202201002003004005006007008009001-12-13-34-35-46-47-58-59-510-6 11-6 12-7油厂大豆库存（万吨）2018201920202021202220230204060801001201401601-11-30 2-28 3-28 4-26 5-25 6-23 7-22 8-20 9-18 10-1711-1512-14油厂豆粕库存（万吨）20182019202020212022202305010015020025030035040014710 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52豆粕市场周度成交量（万吨）20192020202120222023202405101520253035402023-11-012023-11-222023-12-132024-01-03豆粕远月成交量：万吨豆粕现货成交量：万吨创元期货国内：下游养殖利润不佳继续拖累豆粕消费036912151-12-43-94-12 5-16 6-19 7-23 8-26 9-29 11-2 12-6饲料企业豆粕库存天数2022202320240204060801001201/92/93/84/85/86/87/88/89/810/8 11/8 12/8豆粕周度提货量（万吨）202220232024-1,000-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500