亚太地区-金属与采矿业-大宗商业预测：看好钢铁原材料，而非能源煤炭

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 14 May 2019Asia Pacific/AustraliaEquity ResearchDiversified Metals & Mining Bulk Commodity Forecasts SECTOR FORECASTThe Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages our exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to deliver incisive cross-sector and cross-border thematic insights for our clients.Research AnalystsMatthew Hope61 2 8205 4669matthew.hope@credit-suisse.comYang Luo852 2101 6328yang.luo@credit-suisse.comSam Webb61 2 8205 4535sam.webb@credit-suisse.comSamuel Catalano44 20 7883 0346samuel.catalano@credit-suisse.comCaio Ribeiro55 11 3701 6324caio.b.ribeiro@credit-suisse.comNeelkanth Mishra91 22 6777 3716neelkanth.mishra@credit-suisse.comCurt Woodworth, CFA212 325 5117curt.woodworth@credit-suisse.comAri Jahja62 21 2553 7976ariyanto.jahja@credit-suisse.comMichael Slifirski61 3 9280 1845michael.slifirski@credit-suisse.comConor Rowley44 20 7883 9156conor.rowley@credit-suisse.comPaworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee, CFA66 2 614 6210paworamon.suvarnatemee@credit-suisse.comHoonsik Min82 2 3707 3761hoonsik.min@credit-suisse.comChien Po Huang886 2 2715 6342chien-po.huang@credit-suisse.comPrateek Singh91 22 6777 3894prateek.singh@credit-suisse.comBullish on steel raw materials, not energy coal■We've lifted our iron ore price forecasts 21% and expect a price peak of $110/t in 3Q19 when we believe China's trade stocks at ports may be exhausted. Our revised supply & demand estimate indicates a 57Mt iron ore deficit in 2019, which we expect will largely impact China. When supply is no longer available from ports, steel mills are likely to bid aggressively for spot iron ore cargoes rather than willingly curtail blast furnaces. Revisions to our supply & demand forecast include higher Chinese steel output (+32Mt) and greater supply losses from the big iron ore miners. Figure 1: Revised iron ore, met coal & thermal coal price forecasts2Q-193Q-194Q-192019E2020E2021E2022E LT (real)Iron ore finesNewUS$/dmt9511095968575657562% Fe OldUS$/dmt9079657964605875China CFRChg%6%39%46%21%33%24%12%0%58% Fe high Al NewUS$/dmt819582807060526065% Fe NewUS$/dmt11012911211298867586Metallurgical coalNewUS$/t203200205203205200180160HCC (prime)OldUS$/t170150150160130120120140FOB AustChg%19%33%37%27%58%67%50%14%Semi soft coal NewUS$/t138130133133133130117105ULV-PCI coal NewUS$/t150150154149154150135120Thermal CoalNewUS$/t85858587808075756000kcOldUS$/t9595959585808075FOB NewcastleChg%-11%-11%-11%-8%-6%0%-6%0%High ash 5500kcNewUS$/t6062626160605562Source: Credit Suisse estimates■We have lif