穆迪+汇思中国系列：中国经济增长放缓和碳转型对石油和天然气行业的信用影响（演讲PPT）-英

October 2023Inside China with Moody’s:Credit impact on oil and gas sectors from China’s slowing growth and carbon transitionInside China with Moody’s, October 20232» What are Moody’s expectations for oil and gas demand and supply growth amid China’s slowing economic growth and carbon transition?» What is the associated credit impact on rated oil service producers?» How will rising new energy vehicle penetration and increased refining capacity impact Chinese refiners and petrochemical companies?AgendaInside China with Moody’s, October 20233Strong correlation between oil consumption and GDP-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022China oil consumption growth (%, left axis)China's GDP growth (%, right axis)Sources: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023 and IMFInside China with Moody’s, October 20234China is highly dependent on imported oil and gasSource: Wind0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Oil dependency ratioGas dependency ratioInside China with Moody’s, October 20235Domestic gas production will continue to outpace crude oil productionSource: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Change in crude oil productionChange in natural gas productionInside China with Moody’s, October 20236Natural gas import declined in 2022 due to COVID 19, but has rebounded in 2023Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China335 381 419 462 506 542 513 508 44 54 69 90 97 102 121 109 -12%0%12%24%36%48%60%72%010020030040050060020152016201720182019202020212022Million tonnesImport of crude oil (left axis)Import of natural gas (left axis)Change in imports of crude oil (right axis)Change in imports of natural gas (right axis)Inside China with Moody’s, October 20237NEV ownership as a % of China's total automobile fleet will rise to around 20% by 2030Note: ICE stands for internal combustion engine, and NEV stands for new energy vehicles. China's definition of NEV includes b attery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.Sources: China's Ministry of Public Security and Moody's Investors Service estimates0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003504004502017201820192020202120222023E2026E2030EIn million unitsICE ownership volume (left axis)NEV ownership volume (left axis)NEV ownership as % of total auto fleet (right axis)Inside China with Moody’s, October 20238Key drivers and risks for Chinese oilfield service providersSource: Moody’s Investors ServiceInside China with Moody’s, October 20239COSL generates most of its revenue from China0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20182019202020212022Domestic revenue %China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL)Source: Company’s annual reportIn