房地产行业：房地产复苏价在量先

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 4 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 房地产行业 Property Sector [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Property Sector 中文版 Chunli Zhan 詹春立 行业报告： 房地产行业 Chinese version (852)2509 7745 james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk 17 March 2023 [Table_MainInfo] Price Outpaced Volume in Property Recovery 房地产复苏价在量先  We believe that housing ASP showed much stronger rebound than property sales volume recently. After slight ASP rebound in Jan. 2023, we saw much stronger improvement in housing ASP in more cities. In Feb. 2023, the no. of cities that recorded MoM growth in new home ASP and second-hand home ASP were 55 and 40, respectively, which demonstrated nationwide ASP recovery in the property market. Unlike other normal commodities, we usually see change in housing prices ahead of sales volume, as inventory is not a key factor to affect housing prices. We believe the ASP recovery will be a leading factor for the recovery of sales volume in the rest of this year. Only when developers can take profit from their land bank will we see all-round fundamental improvements, including in land investments, new-starts and sales volume.  Policy tone remains positive from the Two Sessions, and we have seen intensive policy relaxation at city level. In the 2023 government work report, the phrase of "houses are for living in, not for speculation" was dropped from the narrative. We believe this still indicates a positive tone on the property sector, which implies that the easing of China’s property curbs will continue. Apart from the still-positive tone from the central government, we have seen city-level policy relaxation almost every day recently, eg. Changsha, Fujian, Henan and Shenzhen. We think the intensive policy relaxation will help to lift up the market’s expectation of further policy easing.  We recommend leading names with quality land bank, also names related to industrial park business. We suggest investors to accumulate property sector stocks after the recent pull back, especially after some profit warnings were announced. Among the quality names, we recommend Longfor (00960 HK), Gemdale (600383 SH), Poly Development (600048 SH) and Vanke-H (02202 HK), based on their solid operations and financial edge. We also recommend industrial park company CSSD (601512 SH), which will have better growth outlook under favorable industrial policy.  Risks: 1) Reopening of up-front financing, increasing the industry's leverage; 2) deteriorating homebuying demand.  我们认为最近房价的反弹明显强过销量的复苏。在 2023 年 1 月份房价有所小幅复苏之后，我们目前在更多的城市都看到了更强的房价反弹的表现。在 2023 年 2 月份，新建商品住宅和二手住宅销售价格环比上涨的城市，分别达到了 55 个和 40 个，显示出全国范围内房价明显复苏的信号。与其他普通商品不同，我们常常会看到房价变动领先于销量的情形，主要原因是地产库存并不构成分析房价的重要变量。我们认为房价的修复，将成为今年剩余时间房地产销量企稳的先行要素。只有当地产商可以从其土地储备中赚到钱的时候，房地产的基本面