精麻老牌劲旅，新药上市迎蜕变

Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical（002262） Equity Research·Company Research·Pharmaceutical 1 / 7 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Old-brand leader of psychopharmaceuticals and narcotics sees meaningful transformation with the launch of new drugs Buy (Initiation) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 3,936 4,304 5,123 6,328 Growth (YoY %) 17% 9% 19% 24% Net profit (RMB mn) 798 904 1,101 1,380 Growth (YoY %) 9% 13% 22% 25% EPS (RMB) 0.79 0.90 1.09 1.37 P/E (X) 30.06 26.53 21.77 17.38 Key words: # new products, technology, clients Investment Thesis ◼ Main logic: 1) Intensive launch of new drugs is likely to drive 2023-25 CAGR to reach 20% for Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical (JSNP); 2) Diminishing influence of centralized procurement contributes to high visibility of its long-term growth; 3) Both quantity and price of new drugs grow with industry transition; 4) Perioperative products benefit from liberalization of Covid control measures and expansion of ICU, hopefully driving short-term performance to beat expectation; 5) Valuation of JSNP's shares is at a historical low. ◼ We expect TRV130 to become its second curve with market size of Rmb2.4bn. Oliceridine injection (TRV130) is a G protein-biased μ-opioid receptor (MOR) agonist, introduced from Trevena U.S., that reduces adverse reactions. We see high certainty of strong demand for TRV130: 1) TRV130 is expected to be launched in 1Q23, thanks to its advance R&D progress; 2) JSNP enjoys mature sales system and distinct channel advantages; 3) Low incidence rate of analgesia-related nausea, vomiting, respiratory depression and other adverse reactions for TRV130; 4) We see strong competency of TRV130 in the innovative opium analgesic market of ~Rmb19.7bn, in which only SHR8554, SHR0410 and other 2 drugs are in the late stage of clinical trial. We believe that sales of TRV130 are likely to reach its peak of Rmb2.4bn in 2030, with Rmb105 per unit, 20mn units, 9.1mn users, and a penetration rate of only 8.6% of the related population. ◼ Upgraded analgesic products contribute to new sources of JSNP's growth. The market size of fentanyl series plus oxycodone exceeds Rmb6.0bn, with 80%+ of the market share dominated by Humanwell Healthcare and Mundipharma. JSNP's analgesics under CDS (Controlled Drug Substance) received approval in 2020 and 2021, and with only <4% of the market share currently, we expect its launch to capture the market. End market size of dezocine, led by Yangtze River Pharmaceutical Group, reached Rmb8.2bn in 2021. JSNP expects its dezocine products to be approved in 2Q23, contributing to meaningful earnings elasticity. Meanwhile, development of drugs with high GPM drives up JNSP's overall profitability, with prices of traditional etomidate and midazolam <rmb40/unit, and prices of recently approved analgesics in Rmb90-140/unit. ◼ We see high visibility of long-term growth for JSNP with diminishing influence of centralized procurement and high barrie