2023年食品饮料行业的投资机会

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 消费行业-食品饮料 Consumer Sector-Food & Beverage [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Consumer Sector - Food & Beverage 中文版 Andy Chen 陈思超 行业报告： 消费行业 – 食品饮料 Chinese Version (852) 2509 2665 andy.chen@gtjas.com.hk 19 December 2022 [Table_MainInfo] Food and Beverage Investment Opportunities in 2023 2023年食品饮料行业的投资机会  The year ahead for the food and beverage sector and companies is a year of hope. In 2022, domestic purchasing power in China was under pressure, and overall consumption willingness was even weaker compared to income conditions. China's retail sales further dropped in November 2022, and the trend could continue in December. However, we think that retail sales will bottom out by 1Q2023 thanks to potential recovery in consumption. Recent policy documents have mapped ways to foster stronger domestic demand, promoting stability. Looking forward in 2023, the positive impact from inflating selling prices and easing cost pressure will be favorable for investing in the food and beverage sector. We are optimistic about the potential upside in sector valuation in 2023, from the perspective of market liquidity and asset price in response to marginal relief on interest rate hikes.  In our view, investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector in 2023 are visible. First of all, we are bullish on the leading players in the beer and liquid milk segments in China, as they are the largest beneficiaries of the ongoing premiumization trend. Our top pick is China Resources Beer (00291 HK), and we recommend Tsingtao Beer (00168 HK). Second, milk powder and braised foods segments have larger potential for profitability rebound alongside gradual recovery in domestic demand. Our rating on China Feihe (06186 HK) is "Buy", and we also recommend Zhou Hei Ya (01458 HK). Third, some defensive picks in the non-alcoholic beverage category may also outperform the market given their stable long-term business prospects. Our rating on China Foods (00506 HK) is "Buy", and we recommend Nongfu Spring (09633 HK). Due to accelerated vertical integration in dairy farming and the raw milk production industry chain, coupled with less intensified pricing competition, market leaders may enjoy higher valuation due to stabilized earnings growth. Youran Dairy (09858 HK) and China Modern Dairy (01117 HK) will be beneficiaries.  Risk factors: Recovery of offline consumption may miss expectations; unexpected price fluctuations in raw materials and/or packaging components; food safety problems.  对于食品饮料行业与公司而言，未来的一年是充满希望的一年。 2022 年国内居民购买力承压，整体消费意愿相比收入端更弱。2022 年 11 月国内社会零售额进一步下滑，12 月的表现可能仍较为低迷。然而，由于消费场景面临潜在修复，我们预计 2023 年第一季度社会零售额将触底企稳。近期的政策亦针对培育强大的内需以及增强稳定性指明了方向。 展望 2023 年，销售价格上升与成本压力减弱的积