世界能源展望2022（英）

2022Energy PerspectivesGlobal macroeconomic and energy market outlook2 | Energy Perspectives 2022WE BUILD TOO MANY WALLSAND NOT ENOUGH BRIDGESSir Isaac NewtonEnergy Perspectives 2022 | 3 Welcome to Equinor’s Energy Perspectives 2022Meeting global climate goals through an energy transition is an immense challenge that requires commitment from governments, industry and individuals alike. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year has not only tragically impacted the lives and livelihoods of those directly affected, but the associated geopolitical tensions have also further deteriorated global cooperation and trade and supply flows on which a sustainable energy transition is completely dependent. Security of energy supply has come to the forefront of the energy policy agenda, with rising energy prices and unprecedented overall cost of living, keeping energy affordability firmly on the agenda as well. In order to bring the world on track to address long-term sustainability challenges in a balanced manner, trust, cooperation, and burden-sharing must be established. This will take time and is by no means guaranteed. As long as short-termism and local priorities dominate policy making, the necessary global changes in the direction of sustainable development will be delayed. Energy Perspectives presents two distinct scenarios for the future world economy, international energy markets and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios are not predictions, but possible contrasting pathways, providing a platform for debate and decision making. The two scenarios, Walls and Bridges, illustrate very different future pathways driven by a variety of factors, ranging from economic growth and technological development to climate policy and geopolitics. The scenarios aim to highlight the immense challenges that must be overcome to make the move from the slow, incremental changes that characterise the energy transition today (Walls), to the radical changes needed to move the world onto a path aligned with the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris Agreement (Bridges). We are committed to being a leader in the energy transition. Energy Perspectives provides me and my colleagues with crucial insight about the outcome space within which we have to balance our strategic priorities.Anders OpedalPresident and CEOWalls divide and bridges connect. Our new scenarios paint a large outcome space for what the long-term energy future might look like based on choices made today and going forward.Eirik WærnessSenior vice president and Chief economist4 | Energy Perspectives 2022Energy Perspectives 2022 presents two scenarios for economic and energy market development, Walls and Bridges .Walls builds on current energy market trends and energy and climate policies, assuming climate action to progress at a slowly accelerating pace in the future. Bridges is a normative back-cast complying with the 1.5°C carbon budget, demonstrating the enormous and sustained efforts requir