达利食品(3799.HK)静待盈利改善与渠道改革成效释放，“收集”

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 中外运输 Equity Research Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Company Report 股票研究 公司报告 证券研究报告 [Table_Info1] 消费行业-食品饮料 Consumer Sector-Food & Beverage [Table_Info2] 达利食品 Dali Foods (03799 HK) [Table_Title] Company Report: Dali Foods (03799 HK) 中文版 Alfred Chen 陈傲 (86755) 2397 6672 公司报告： 达利食品 (03799 HK) Chinese version ao.chen@gtjas.com.hk 30 August 2022 [Table_Summary] Waiting for Profitability Improvement and Return from Reformation of Channels; "Accumulate" 静待盈利改善与渠道改革成效释放，“收集”  We adjust our rating to "Accumulate" and TP to HK$5.00. We revise down our forecasted 2022-2024 EPS to RMB0.258/ RMB0.283/ RMB0.311, respectively, based on worse-than-expected 1H22 results. Considering marginal relief on cost pressure, yet-to-be-seen return on reformation of channels and distributor system and the worse-than-expected 1H22 results, we adjust our rating to "Accumulate" and TP to HK$5.00. Our TP represents 15.4x 2023 PER and 14.1x 2024 PER.  1H22 results missed due to significant raw material cost pressures and Covid-19 pandemic resurgence. Dali’s 1H22 revenue decreased by 8.0% YoY, of which sales of household consumption/ snack food/ RTD drinks recorded YoY growth of 2.8%/ -6.8%/ -19.5%, respectively. Gross margin fell by 3.1 ppts YoY to 35.2%, negatively affected by cost inflation on raw materials. Shareholders’ profit declined by 15.3% YoY to RMB1,706 mn.  We expect marginal improvement on Dali’s sales performance and profitability to be seen in 2H22. According to the management, the reformation of channels and distributors system was almost completed and Dali raised the price of snack food products by mid-single-digit percentage in 1H22. In 2H22, we expect Hi-Tiger to regain growth momentum as the resurgence of Covid-19 pandemic is basically under control and we expect Meibeichen to achieve strong growth given continuous expansion in POS. Pressure from raw material costs has eased marginally in Q3, but still remains high on a yoy basis.  Catalysts: Recovery on Hi-Tiger sales; continuous decline in raw material prices.  Risks: Raw material prices may remain high; Covid-19 pandemic resurgence.  我们调整投资评级至“收集”并调整目标价至 5.00 港元。由于不及预期的 2022 年上半年业绩，我们下调 2022-2024 年的每股盈利预测至人民币 0.258/ 0.283/ 0.311 元。考虑到成本压力的边际缓解、渠道经销商改革成效有待观察和 2022 年上半年不及预期的业绩，我们调整投资评级和目标价至“收集”和 5.00 港元。我们的目标价相当于 15.4 倍/14.1 倍 2023 和 2024 市盈率。  由于显著的原材料成本压力与新冠疫情反复，2022 年上半年业绩不及预期。2022 年上半年达利收入同比下降 8.0%，其中家庭消费/休闲食品/即饮饮料板块分别录得 2.8%/-6.8%/-19.5%的同比增长。毛利率同比下滑 3.1 个百分点至 35.2%，主要受到原材料成本显著上涨的负面影响。股东净利同比下滑 15.3%至人民币 17.06 亿元。  我们预计达利销售表现与盈利能力的边际改善将于 2022 年下半年出现。根据管理层交流，渠道经销商体系梳理已接近尾声，同时 2022 年上半年达利对休闲食品产品进行了中单位数幅度的提价。我们预计由于新冠疫情反复基本受控，乐虎将于下半年重拾增长，而美焙辰将在持续售点扩张的支撑下取得可观的增长。原材料成本压力已于第 3 季度边际改善，但同比来看仍处于高位。  催化剂：乐虎销售的恢复；原材料价格的持续下降。  风险因素：原材料价格维持高位；新冠疫情反复。 [Table_Rank] Rating: Accumulate Downgraded 评级： 收集 (下调) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$5.00 Revised from 原目标价: HK$5.70 S