2021年3月信用债市场运行报告：一级市场发行量大增，到期收益率小幅下行

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 远东研究·债市运行 2021 年 4 月 15 日 一级市场发行量大增，到期收益率小幅下行 ——2021 年 3 月信用债市场运行报告 摘 要 作 者：陈浩川 简奖平 孙海拓 卢胜娇 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 发行方面，3 月信用债发行规模大幅增长，共发行 14408.88 亿元。同时，本月取消或推迟发行的债券金额有所回升，环比增加 44.32%。 净融资方面，3 月份信用债共实现净融资 2507.83 亿元，主要集中于建筑装饰、综合和交通运输行业；高等级信用债净融资额占比有所上升；城投债净融资额大幅上行，在信用债净融资中占比 81.36%。 到期压力方面，未来 6 个月将有 42046.04 亿元信用债到期，整体到期压力与之前相比下降明显，民营企业债券到期压力减小明显，城投债到期压力变化不大。 到期收益率方面，本月信用债收益率总体小幅下行；中高等级城投债到期收益率呈现下行趋势，而低等级城投债到期收益率发生了上行。5 年期 AA-级城投债收益率上行 9.02BP，或表明市场对期限较长的弱资质城投债偏好有所下降。 信用利差方面，本月 10 个重点行业信用利差总体呈收窄趋势，中低等级大部分行业信用利差处于近 10 年高位；中高等级城投债信用利差亦小幅收窄，AA 级城投债信用利差处于近 10 年高位。 2021 年新增地方政府债务限额已经部分提前下达。展望未来，预计第二季度或将形成今年首波地方债发行高峰，利率债供给压力的上升或将对信用债发行形成挤出效应；信用债收益率或将受利率债收益率走势影响，保持震荡运行态势。 相关研究报告： 1.《2021 年 2 月利率债市场运行报告》，2021.3.12 2.《2021 年 1 月份债券市场运行报告》，2021.02.11 3.《2020 年第四季度债券市场运行报告》，2021.01.15 4.《2020 年 11 月债券市场运行报告》，2020.12.11 5.《2020 年 10 月债券市场运行报告》，2020.11.13 6.《2020 年第三季度债券市场运行报告》，2020.10.14 7.《2020 年 8 月债券市场运行报告》，2020.09.15 8.《2020 年 7 月债券市场运行报告》，2020.08.13 9.《2020 年二季度债券市场运行报告》，2020.07.10 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 FECR Research·China's Bond Markets April 15th, 2021 Summary In terms of the issuance of China’s corporate bonds, the scale of China's corporate bond issuance in March have significantly increased, which is about 1440.888 billion yuan. At the same time, the amount of canceled or postponed bond issuances in March has rebounded, which increased by 44.32% from last month. In terms of net financing, the net financing of China’s corporate bond issuance in March was 250.783 billion yuan, which concentrated in the Construction, Comprehensive and Transportation industries. The proportion of net financing of high-rated corporate bonds has increased. The net financing of Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bonds rose significantly and accounted for 81.36% of net financing of corporate bonds. In terms of maturing pressure, 4,204.604 billion yuan of China’s corporate bond will mature in the next six months. The overall maturity pressure of corporate bond market dropped apparently compared with that of the previous 6 months. The maturing pressure faced by private-owned enterprise bond issuers decreased obviously, while the maturing pressure of LGFV bonds did not change much. In terms of yield to maturity, the overall yields of China’s corporate bonds fell slightly. The medium and high-rated LGFV bonds yield fell marginally, while the low-rated LGFV bonds' yields rose. The yield of 5-year AA minus-rated LGFV bonds rose by 9.02BP, which might indicate that the market’s preference for long-term weak-qualified LGFV bonds has declined. In terms of credit spread, the credit spreads of 10 crucial industries narrowed in March, but the credit spreads of most of the medium and low-rated industries were at a historical high level in the past 10 years. Th