PMI中国制造业季刊（英文）

PMI Quarterly on China Manufacturing April 2021 Issue 44 PMI 1Q21 Robust growth in manufacturing production and economic activity Policy Outlook China to maintain necessary policy support for economy 2Q21 Forecasts Real GDP growth to reach 8.0% yoy while PMI to fluctuate within 51.0 to 52.0 Fung Business Intelligence Helen Chin Vice President helenchin@fung1937.com William Kong Senior Research Manager Williamkong@fung1937.com China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing Chen ZhongTao czt@clic.org.cn 2 PMI Quarterly on China Manufacturing | April 2021 Issue 44 PMI points to robust growth in manufacturing production and economic activity in 1Q21 Our observations • Expansion of large enterprises accelerates while medium and small enterprises return to expansion. • Manufacturing production expands at a relatively rapid pace as overall demand picks up fast. • New export orders increase amid a sustained recovery in external demand. • Prices of production inputs surge, adding cost pressures on Chinese manufacturers. • Manufacturers raise ex-factory prices of their products amid increasing cost pressures and improving sales environment. • Manufacturing employment increases alongside a strong recovery in the export sector and overall economy. Policy outlook • The Chinese government will maintain necessary policy support for the economy. • The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented in a manner that is of higher quality, more effective and more sustainable. Meanwhile, the prudent monetary policy will be pursued in a more flexible, tailored and appropriate way, with steps to ensure ‘reasonably sufficient’ liquidity and a stable macro leverage ratio. • These policies will help promote the continued recovery of the Chinese economy. Our forecasts for 2Q21 • We project a further expansion of manufacturing production and economic activity in 2Q21. • The headline PMI will stay above 50 and fluctuate within 51.0 to 52.0. • Real GDP growth will reach 8.0% yoy. • VAIO growth will top 8.5% yoy. • Exports will jump by over 15.0% yoy. • Year-on-year growth rates for both the purchaser price index and the PPI will rise further and reach their near-term peaks. Helen Chin Vice President E: helenchin@fung1937.com William Kong Senior Research Manager E: williamkong@fung1937.com Fung Business Intelligence 1/F LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road Kowloon, Hong Kong T: (852) 2300 2470 F: (852) 2635 1598 E: fbicgroup@fung1937.com W: http://www.fbicgroup.com Chen ZhongTao czt@clic.org.cn China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing 48.049.050.051.052.053.054.0Headline PMIPMIPMI forecasts18.3 8.0 -10-5051015202Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21GDP growth (%)GDP growthGDP growth forecasts 3 PMI Quarterly on China Manufacturing | April 2021 Issue 44 IN THIS ISSUE: PMI points to robust growth in manufacturing production and economic activity in 1Q21 4 What the PMI tells us about the performance of enterprises of differ