新能源行业年度投资策略：锂电池与新能源车：周期、利润与现金之根；科技，估值与出海所依

➢➢➢➢4567890%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%01020304050202020212022202320242025E2026E新增装机同比0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0100200300400500201720182019202020212022202320242025E2026E储能装机同比101213-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0501001502002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025x 10000重卡销量yoy14-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%010203040502022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-12x 10000新能源汽车销量yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%024681012141618新能源汽车销量yoy150%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002502022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102025-12x 10000全球新能源汽车销量yoy-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%05101520253035新能源汽车出口当月同比累计同比5202520192020202120222023202420252018~2020 CAGR平均2020~2022 CAGR平均2022~2024 CAGR平均2025-38.5%-36.7%169.5%290.5%-46.3%-64.8%-16.1%需求反转氢氧化锂85.8%-2.9%115.4%22.5%19.7%18.4%4.6%碳酸锂2.1%28.7%46.9%36.3%34.6%3.2%23.0%三元正极15.8%14.0%94.7%55.9%-4.2%6.0%16.5%三元前驱体24.0%14.6%100.5%29.6%-2.1%7.5%4.5%铁锂正极24.6%59.4%218.8%130.7%50.8%40.7%33.0%正磷酸铁30.3%61.3%164.6%143.5%68.7%47.9%66.3%负极16.2%43.6%107.1%65.7%5.1%21.8%37.0%隔膜36.2%35.8%109.7%60.3%43.1%27.2%37.6%电解液28.6%45.8%63.8%90.3%30.7%39.6%46.9%六氟磷酸锂40.1%15.8%94.5%111.2%23.7%47.2%32.0%动力电池20.9%-2.3%163.4%148.5%23.7%22.4%46.3%三元电池40.8%-12.0%93.6%126.4%13.8%13.9%23.5%铁锂电池-1.2%24.7%262.9%165.1%30.1%27.6%57.7%储能电池20.0%35.7%132.6%140.3%58.3%64.9%76.2%27.6%136.4%52.4%76.2%新能源车-4.0%13.3%157.6%95.6%37.9%35.5%27.9%4.3%124.5%36.7%27.9%储能-5.2%138.6%42.8%232.0%189.0%105.1%47.5%50.4%117.7%143.5%47.5%下游应用中游电池8.7%155.9%23.1%46.3%中游材料29.3%92.0%29.7%39.4%上游资源20.1%48.7%18.3%15.7%环节碳酸锂价格变动幅度-所属周期跌价周期涨价周期跌价周期2025()/0%20%40%60%80%100%05010015020025030035020182019202020212022202320242025出货量同比2025)(/)2122230%20%40%60%80%100%05001000150020002500300035002017201820192020202120222023202420252026E全球锂电池出货yoy0%20%40%60%80%100%201720182019202020212022202320242025消费动力储能2526272829◼◼◼◼◼◼◼◼◼