Deutsche Bank-FX Blog What is driving high-frequency FX-118895521

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 17/11/2025 11:11:12 GMTDistributed on: 17/11/2025 11:11:12 GMT17 November 2025Deutsche BankResearch Global Foreign Exchange FX Blog Date Copper remains the primary driver of high-frequency FX movements, with US equities and rates ranking as the second and third most influential factors, respectively. While the number of currencies currently being driven by US equities has declined compared to last week, US equities have still influenced FX on more days than any other driver over the past three months. This influence is particularly evident in pairs like USD/CHF and AUD/JPY. For those anticipating a risk-off environment as the year concludes, we recently highlighted that buying one-month AUD/JPY volatility offers an effective hedge against such moves.Meanwhile, copper serves as the primary driver for commodity currencies, including AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Over the past three months, its influence has also extended to movements in USD/ZAR and EUR/NOK. Concurrently, we observe a moderate correlation between copper and gold, as well as with the Antipodean currencies, USD/ZAR, and USD/MXN.Digging deeper into specific pairs:nEUR/USD: Driven by EU equities and Copper.nUSD/JPY: Its movements are primarily driven by US equities.nGBP/USD: This pair is influenced by UK equities, UK rates, and Copper.nEUR/PLN: Driven by EU equities, EU rates, Copper, and EM equities.Finally, based on correlation-based Minimum Spanning Trees, EM equities consistently stand out as the dominant contemporaneous driver of high-frequency FX movements, with VIX and US rates emerging as significant secondary drivers.Figure 1, Figure 3 and Figure 13 look at causality in FX. Figure 1 shows the currencies whose moves can be statistically predicted by other asset classes. Figure 3 ranks the drivers of FX (highest to lowest number of currencies, driven by a given asset). Figure 13 shows the relative importance of each asset in driving a given currency in the recent period. Figure 11 looks at contemporaneous correlations. We show the top 3 correlations between FX pairs and other asset classes. Figure 12 shows intra-FX correlations. We use Granger causality tests to measure causality. All statistics are measured at 5-minute frequency. For further details, please see our updated methodology. For a summary of our FX quant tools, please also see DB FX research quant tools.Rohini Grover, Ph.D.Strategist+44-20-75475907Christabel CharlesResearch AnalystDeutsche Bank AGIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.What is driving high-frequency FX?17 November 2025FX BlogPage 2Deutsche Bank AGFigure 1: Significant connections from assets to currencies# of conn. from other assets Assets driving currencies(Over last 4 weeks)(Over last 4 weeks)6M historySince '16EURPLN4EU EQ,EU RATE,COPPER