Barclays_Global_Outlook_As_goes_AI

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.(i) This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt researchreports under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242.FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 77.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 77.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 78.Global Outlook‘As goes AI…’In our view, AI is driving global growth by offsetting trade-related headwinds. Once again, we expect global equitymarkets to outperform core fixed income for the comingquarter.ForewordMacro OutlookNo turning back. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6We expect AI to be the most important macro factor in 2026, as traditional drivers such asmonetary policy and trade policy fade. We think fears of a collapse in the AI narrative areoverdone and expect the economic expansion to continue for yet another year. Cross Asset Research20 November 2025SIGNATUREAjay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, USCompleted: 19-Nov-25, 22:01 GMT Released: 20-Nov-25, 05:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalInvestment OutlookStill not a bubble. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Despite skepticism, US tech is still likely to lead, and valuations are not bubble-like.  Bondreturns should be mediocre despite Fed cuts, favoring equities over fixed income. The AI boomhas also created cross-asset opportunities in FX and credit.Summary of Asset Allocation Themes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Critical MineralsThe magnetic pull of rare earths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23China's rare earth curbs in 2025 tripled prices, jolting EVs and energy. But the real flashpoint isdefence, where rare earth magnet