IMF-从服务器到费率：人工智能、ICT资本和自然费率（英）

From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa WP/25/224 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 OCT* The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the International MonetaryFund or IMF policy or those of the Bank of Italy. Part of this work was completed when Stefania Villa was visiting the IMF, whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged. The authors thank Florence Jaumotte, Rahim Kanani, Jeff Kearns, Yosuke Kido, StefanoNeri, Anh Nguyen, Marianna Riggi, Tiziano Ropele and Giordano Zevi for useful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimerapplies.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/224IMF Working Paper Research Department From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate Prepared by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa* Authorized for distribution by Florence Jaumotte October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of the rising wave of investment in information and communication technology (ICT)—including AI-related hardware and software—in the U.S. economy. The analysis uses a structural macroeconomic model that treats ICT as a distinct type of capital and explores the degree to which ICT complements or substitutes for labor. The findings reveal three key insights. First, labor and ICT have historically been only moderately substitutable. Second, technological innovations that make it easier to turn ICT investment into productive capital act like demand shocks, boosting output and inflation. Third, given the uncertainty surrounding the interaction between AI-driven ICT capital and labor, the paper presents scenarios of possible trajectories for ICT investment under alternative assumptions. When ICT tends to complement labor, the economy experiences strong gains in output, but also inflationary pressure; the natural interest rate increases, requiring tighter monetary policy. Conversely, if ICT tends to replace labor, the same ICT investment path warrants a looser monetary policy stance. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Melina, G. and S. Villa (2025). “From Servers to Rates: AI, ICT Capital, and the Natural Rate,” IMF Working Paper No. 25/224, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. JEL Classification Numbers: E22; E32; E52; E43; O33 Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Generative AI; ICT investment; Natural rate of interest; Monetary policy; DSGE modeling Author