UBS Equities-Global Strategy _CTAs Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Upda...-118355869

ab21 October 2025Global ResearchGlobal StrategyCTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly UpdateDetails on the methodology/model can be found in our Q-Series reportStable positioning in stocks, peak uncertainty in bonds• CTAs' positioning in stocks has been fairly stable since mid-August. They are very long and their only apparent option from here is to sell. The obvious question is "when and how much?". In the near term, we foresee a little bit of profit taking, mostly in the US, but nothing dramatic. The equity trade has been very profitable for them in the last three months, and there is no rush to unwind it (yet).• CTAs have finally turned bullish duration, the first time since October last year. In the last two weeks, they bought an aggregated $120/130m of bond DV01, and we expect them to buy another $30/40m in the next two weeks. It is worth noting that the distribution of CTAs' expected flows is very wide, and that any negative price action will likely be followed by strong outflows, especially in the US, Italy & Australia.• In credit, volatility is picking up as investors fear contagion from the US regional banks' disclosures of allegedly fraudulent loans. CTAs have barely moved on the news, but we now expect them to cut ⅓ of their credit risk in the next couple of weeks.• In FX, CTAs have closed their entire USD short position in a span of three weeks. Consolidation should be in order, with smaller FX adjustments. They remain long EMEA, CEE & Latam FX vs. short Asia FX.• CTAs sold all four commodity cohorts in October, with Energy the prime target. Flows should stabilize in Metals, turn positive in Agricultural but remain negative for Energy. Current signals: bullish stocks/credit/precious, neutral bonds, bearish Asia FXa) Equities: bullish across the boardb) Bonds: bullish US, Italy, Australia & Canada; bearish Japan, EU & UKc) Credit: bullish across the boardd) Currencies: bullish EMEA, CEE & Latam FX, neutral USD, bearish Asia FXe) Commodities: bullish metals, bearish energy & agriculturalsPotential trades in couple of chartsLevels to watch on S&P 500Levels to watch on UST 10yWhat our CTA model says about FX? What our CTA model says about Equities?What our CTA model says about Rates? What our CTA model says about Credit?What our CTA model says about Commodities?Figure 1: CTA price momentum signals in major markets: today vs forecast-1.00-0.75-0.50-0.250.000.250.500.751.00US10Y EU10YSPXSX5EMESA(EM Eq)XIN9IEURMXNCNHCdxHY CrudeGoldSignal (t)Exp. Signal (t+2w)Signal value [-1,+1]Source: UBS, BloombergFigure 2: Current positions and expected flows (as % of ADV) in major markets-15-10-5051015202530US10Y EU10YSPXSX5EMESA(EM Eq)XIN9IEURMXNCNHCdxHY CrudeGoldPosition (t, %ADV)Expected Flows (t, t+2w, %ADV)(%ADV)CDX HY: +38%ADVXIN9I: +33%ADVSource: UBS, BloombergThis report has been prepared by UBS Europe SE. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on pag