世界银行-为人口、气候和技术变化做准备：中东和北非地区的全球大趋势和人类发展（英）

AGLOBAL MEGATRENDS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN THE MENA REGIONPreparing for Demographic, Climate and Technological Change Johannes KoettlSofia Gomez TamayoMatteo MorgandiRamy Zeid May 2025Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized©2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved.This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. This report is part of the task “Embracing and Shaping Change: Human Development for a Middle East and North Africa in Transition” (P502135) produced by the MENA People team.Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Preparing for Demographic, Climate and Technological Change - Global Megatrends and Human Development in the MENA Region. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover design: Dania Kibbi1ContentsOverview 6 1 The impact of the megatrends on the people in MENA 141.1 Increasing old-age dependency 141.2 The impact of climate change: Rising seas, extreme weather, scarce water 181.3 The impact of technology: job destruction, job creation, and productivity boost 211.4 Megatrends are unfolding amid heightened fragility and conflict 242 Shaping, embracing, and managing 282.1 Shaping the megatrends to the better 282.1.1 Healthy aging and redefining old-age 292.1.2 Empowering families to reach their desired fertility