兰德-人工智能生物工具全球风险指数-总结评估和方法报告（英）

Global Risk Index for AI-enabled Biological Tools Summary Assessment & Methods Report✝Toby Webster1, Richard Moulange2, Barbara Del Castello3, James Walker2, Sana Zakaria1*, Cassidy Nelson2* 1 RAND Europe 2 Centre for Long-Term Resilience 3 RAND Corporation *Co-leads and corresponding authors: Dr Sana Zakaria (szakaria@randeurope.org) and DrCassidy Nelson (cassidy@longtermresilience.org)September 2025 ✝ This publication is a shortened version of an April 2025 private report, adapted in line with ourcommitments to transparency and responsible disclosure of potentially hazardous information.This public report describes the methodology that underlies the Global Risk Index in detail,provides an overview of our results and offers recommendations to help both promote thebenefits of AI-enabled biological tools and mitigate emerging risks they pose. Additional resultsand recommendations relevant only to government colleagues are omitted from thisreport—you are welcome to contact the corresponding authors for further information. Global Risk Index for AI-enabled Biological Tools This work has been undertaken by researchers in the Biosecurity Policy Unit at the Centre for Long-Term Resilience, RAND Europe’s Frontiers of Technology Hub, and RAND’s Meselson Center. The Biosecurity Policy Unit at the Centre for Long-Term Resilience The Centre for Long-Term Resilience (CLTR) is an independent think tank with a mission to transform global resilience to extreme risks. CLTR’s Biosecurity Policy Unit works to provide expert policy advice on the full spectrum of biological threats and the benefits and risks of emerging technology. To learn more about CLTR, visit https://www.longtermresilience.org/ Frontiers of Technology hub at RAND Europe The Frontiers of Technology hub is dedicated to assessing emerging developments in technologies ranging from AI and synthetic biology to quantum, delivering independent research and actionable insights that help policymakers and industry seize opportunities and manage risks. RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. To learn more about RAND Europe, visit www.randeurope.org. The Meselson Center at RAND The Meselson Center is dedicated to reducing risks from biological threats and emerging technologies. The Center combines policy research with technical research to provide policymakers with the information needed to prevent, prepare for, and mitigate large-scale catastrophes. To learn more about the center, visit https://www.rand.org/global-and-emerging-risks/centers/meselson.html Suggested citation Webster et al. 2025. "Global Risk Index for AI-Enabled Biological Tools". The Centre for Long-Term Resilience & RAND Europe. https://doi.org/10.71172/wjyw-6dyc The Centre for Long-Term Resilience & RAND Europe 1 Global Risk Index for AI-enabled Biological Tools About This Report Artificial intelligence is transforming the life sciences, accele