先进人工智能时代网络安全的制胜经济学（英）

CHAD HEITZENRATERThe Winning Economics of Cybersecurity in an Age of Advanced Artificial IntelligenceExpert InsightsPERSPECTIVE ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUEAugust 2025For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/PEA3691-11.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, visit www.rand.org/about/publishing/permissions.PE-A3691-11 iii About This Paper As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly capable, the employment of AI models for offensive and defensive purposes in cyberspace is a topic central to the policy debate around the safety and security of this technology. The purpose of this paper is to advance the hypothesis that the right investments in people, process, and technology could result in proliferated and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) ultimately benefiting cyber defense—but only if action is taken to do so. I outline a case for why advanced AI might fundamentally reshape the economics of cybersecurity, what aspects of the cybersecurity ecosystem are likely to benefit, and what it will take to realize the promise of a defense-dominant cyber environment. Drawing on