世界银行-评估巴基斯坦家庭的碳排放：对碳税政策的影响-技术说明（英）

Technical Note June 2025 Pakistan Poverty and Equity Team Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized © 2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Disclaimer This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes, and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Assessing Carbon Emissions in Pakistani Households: Implications for Carbon Tax Policy Oscar Barriga-Cabanillas and Christina Wieser1 Summary As Pakistan pursues its climate commitments, carbon pricing offers a market-based tool to align economic incentives with environmental goals. This note examines Pakistan's carbon emission profile, current emission levels, and their projected increases as the country transitions to a higher middle-income status. Using the latest household survey available, it imputes carbon content to the consumption basket of Pakistani households and discusses the direct, indirect, and behavioral channels affected by carbon taxation. Results reveal stark carbon consumption disparities across income levels, with top-decile households generating four times more carbon than their bottom-decile counterparts. Non-food items constitute the largest carbon source (44-50 percent) across all income bands, while urban households exceed rural ones by approximately one-third in their overall carbon footprint, a result driven by both higher expenditure levels and consumption of more carbon-intensive goods. These patterns create both challenges and opportunities for policy design. The note argues that taxing carbon should be part of a comprehensive policy addressing the actual carbon price in the economy, which includes phasing out of energy subsidies that lower the cost of carbon emissions —at a high fiscal cost. Carbon pricing emerges as a policy with a potential "double dividend" that can simultaneously reduce emissions and generate substantial fiscal resources for development initiatives or tax burden reduction elsewhere in the economy. However, implementation su