麦肯锡-下一次创新革命——由人工智能驱动（英）

June 2025The next innovation revolution—powered by AIAI isn’t just for efficiency anymore. It can double the pace of R&D to unlock up to half a trillion dollars in value annually. This article is a collaborative effort by Alex Singla, Alexander Sukharevsky, Elia Berteletti, Lareina Yee, and Michael Chui, representing views from QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey, and McKinsey’s Operations Practice.The innovation challenge: Good ideas are harder to find Innovation has been the driver of the extraordinary progress from which humankind has benefited for a couple of centuries, but it faces a largely hidden threat: Innovation is becoming harder and more expensive. It’s instructive here to take the long view. For most of recorded human history, improvements in human welfare from generation to generation have been limited. Take, for example, GDP per capita as a measure of economic prosperity. For most of human history, roughly until the early 1800s, the measure barely moved to $1,200. But since that time, it has grown by more than 14 times (Exhibit 1).1 Human health has followed a similar trajectory—low for centuries and only significantly improving in recent generations. In 1900, for example, the average life expectancy of a newborn was 32 years. By 2021, this had more than doubled to 71 years.21 Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, Maddison Project Database 2023; Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, “Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update,” Journal of Economic Surveys, 2024, Volume 39.2 Saloni Dattani et al., “Life expectancy,” Our World in Data, 2023.Exhibit 1Web <2025><AI innovation>Exhibit <1> of <5>GDP per capita globally over the past ~2,000 years, $ thousandsSource: Maddison Project Database version 2023: Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, “Maddison-style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update,” Journal of Economic Surveys, Apr 3, 2024; McKinsey analysis Building on scientifc discoveries, the Industrial Revolution sparked great improvements in human welfare.McKinsey & Company0020001000150050051015202The next innovation revolution—powered by AIThese and many other improvements in our lives have been driven by a set of scientific discoveries and products engineered based on those breakthroughs. These innovations have enabled economies to grow and people’s lives to improve. The steam engine helped power the Industrial Revolution. Vaccines that prevent diseases such as smallpox, measles, and polio continue to save millions of lives each year; infant mortality is estimated to have decreased 40 percent in the past 50 years because of vaccines.3 The invention of the integrated circuit for computing and lasers for communication through fiber-optic cables helped create the global internet. But the rate of progress enabled by innovation now faces an under-recognized threat: Innovation is getting more difficult and more expensive.Even as science advances, R&D productivity is on the