Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Strategy Notes A collection of monitors-115474918

2025 05:22:10 GMT2025 05:22:10 GMTDeutsche BankDeutsche BankResearchAsia Strategy DashboardA collection of monitorsSameer Goel, Global Head of Emerging Markets & APAC ResearchMay 2025IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.ResearchDeutsche BankSameer Goel | +65 6423 6973 | sameer.goel@db.com2Macro Monitor (1)Note: The monthly economic indicators are transformed into rolling 10-year z-scores.Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, CEIC, Haver AnalyticsA mixed picture across the region; inflation & consumption trends the clearestAverageChinaIndiaIndonesia MalaysiaKoreaPhilsSingaporeTaiwanThailand0.3 Export growth0.0-0.40.1-0.10.00.20.51.41.20.2 IP0.5-0.10.2-0.20.8-0.2-0.11.3-0.3-0.6 Inflation-1.5-1.1-1.6-0.30.0-0.8-0.80.5-0.2-0.3 Inflation expectations-0.3-0.7-0.5-0.10.3-0.4-0.8-0.2-0.1-0.7 Money supply-1.3-0.2-1.0-1.6-0.2-1.00.4-0.6-0.80.7 Unemployment-0.2-0.11.31.01.20.80.31.60.90.1 Import growth-0.3-0.30.00.2-0.20.00.11.50.2-0.2 Private credit-1.40.00.3-0.5-1.10.21.01.3-2.20.1 PMI headline0.30.90.20.2-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.30.00.1 PMI: ouput0.30.80.10.20.0-0.10.00.1-0.30.2 PMI: new order0.40.80.20.4-0.1-0.20.2-0.10.0-0.2 Consumption-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.7-0.3-0.2-0.70.8ResearchDeutsche BankSameer Goel | +65 6423 6973 | sameer.goel@db.com3Macro Monitor (2)Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, CEIC5.25.45.65.86.06.26.46.66.87.05.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.5Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25Daily growth indicatorIndia 1Y1Y (right)1.82.22.633.43.84.20.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Jan-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 May-24 Sep-24 Jan-25 May-25Daily growth indicator 21d right-shiftedKorea 1Y1Y (right)A slowdown in India……but some signs of support in KoreaResearchDeutsche BankSameer Goel | +65 6423 6973 | sameer.goel@db.com4Trade Monitor (1)Source: Deutsche Bank, CEIC, WITS, WTO, OECD *Before Liberation DayNotes: Higher ranking represents a higher effective trade barrier under each category. Tariff gap for A = A’s tariff on US goods minus US tariff on A’s goods BEFORE Liberation Day. Ranking for "non-tariff barriers" is based on the number of non-tariff barriers imposed on US provided by WTO. Ranking for “rerouting of China exports to US" is based on the % of China value-added exports in an economy’s total export to US. Asia scores relatively poorly vs. others on most trade metrics US cares about…ResearchDeutsche BankSameer Goel | +65 6423 6973 | sameer.goel@db.com5Trade Monitor (2)Source: Deutsche Bank, US Census Bureau, White House, US Customs & Border Protection NoteNotes: (1) Tariffs on steel, aluminum and auto sector are applied at 25% based on the relevant 8-digit HS codes specified under EOs 9704, 9705, 9980, 10895, 10896 and 10908(2) All other exemptions specified under Annex II of the 2-April EO (14257) have been taken to carry a rate of 0% (including as amended by the 11-Apri