国际清算银行-商品价格和货币政策：新旧挑战（英）

BIS Bulletin No 96 Commodity prices and monetary policy: old and new challenges Fernando Avalos, Ryan Banerjee, Matthias Burgert, Boris Hofmann, Cristina Manea and Matthias Rottner 8 January 2025 BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors are grateful to Adam Cap and Emese Kuruc for excellent analysis and research assistance, and to Nicola Faessler for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 978-92-9259-827-3 (online) BIS Bulletin 1 Fernando AvalosFernando.Avalos@bis.orgRyan BanerjeeRyan.Banerjee@bis.orgMatthias Burgert Matthias.Burgert@bis.org Boris HofmannBoris.Hofmann@bis.orgCristina ManeaCristina.Manea@bis.orgMatthias Rottner Matthias.Rottner@bis.org Commodity prices and monetary policy: old and new challenges Key takeaways • Major price increases in energy and food were key drivers of the 2021–22 inflation surge. These large supply-driven commodity price increases, occurring when inflation was already elevated in many countries, increased the risk of moving to a high-inflation regime. • Central banks have tended to look through commodity price fluctuations due to their often transitory nature and the implied trade-off between inflation and output stabilisation in the case of supply-driven price shocks. • Growing geopolitical disruptions, climate change and a bumpy transition to green energy threaten to make commodity price shifts larger and more frequent going forward. This potentially raises greater risks for price stability, thereby limiting the scope for monetary policy to look through them. Large and sudden commodity price increases, particularly in energy and food, were key drivers of the 2021–22 inflation surge. The prices of food staples, industrial metals and oil soared to their highest levels in a decade (Graph 1.A). The natural gas price spike was unprecedented, particularly in Europe, with more than tenfold increases within a few weeks – a jump that even exceeded that of oil in the 1970s (Graph 1.B). While these sharp price increases have largely reversed since 2022, they have left scars in commodity markets. Natural gas prices remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, resulting in spillovers to prices of other key by-products, such as fertilisers or electricity in some regions. Oil benchmarks have not fully fallen back either. And persistent dislocations in the trading of physical oil have widened spreads between west-