Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary October 11-110761034

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global October 11Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCLenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiroki YagiResearch Associate Hiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5412 USTs twist-steepen after a miss in PPI with strong underlying details; strong Canadian labor data; GBP gains 0.1% amid in-line GDP data; BoK cuts rates; BRL underperforms amid fiscal headlines; Fed's Goolsbee says rates are “way above” normal; DXY at 102.91 (-0.1%); US 10y at 4.100% (+3.9bp).• USTs twist-steepen amid a miss in Headline PPI with strong components that feed into PCE such as airfares and an unexpected fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. • Canadian government bonds bull-steepen and CAD weakens -0.1% despite strong Canadian labor data with a sizeable beat in the employment change and an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate.• Monthly UK GDP data meets consensus expectations but details are less strong with weakness in consumer-facing sectors; GBP gains 0.1%. • BoK cuts rates by 25bp to 3.25% at its October meeting after staying on hold for 22 months, but five out of the six members see no further easing in the next three months; USD/KRW falls -0.2%.• BRL underperforms peers, weakening 0.4% as President Lula reiterates his intention to raise the income tax exemption from ~R$2,800 to R$5,000 and potentially increase it even further in the future.• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says rates are “way above” normal as they will ultimately go down to ~2.5%-3.5% over the next 12-18 months; market pricing for the trough rate is currently ~3.3%.The next Global Macro Commentary will be published on Tuesday, October 15. Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (France Economics, Equities & Macro Strategy: 2025 Budget: ⅔ Tax Increases, ⅓ Spending Cuts; Chile Economics & Strategy: Central Bank Preview: Sticking to the IPoM Script; EM Fixed Income Flows Update: Where Supply Meets Demand).The main G10 central bank event in the week ahead is the ECB monetary policy meeting (Oct 16). Selected scheduled G10 central bank speaking engagements include Fed Governor Waller (Oct 14), RBA Assistant Governor Hunter (Oct 15), San Francisco Fed President Daly (Oct 15), BoJ Board Member Adachi (Oct 16), and BoE Deputy Governor Woods (Oct 17). In emerging markets, monetary policy meetings Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their