Global Data Watch Not everything, not everywhere, not all at...-110762095

Global Economic Research11 October 2024J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comContentsThe okay, the not so okay, and the ugly of global industry11Oil giveth and taketh away15US: Dollar policy in a second Trump presidency19Euro area: Making progress on disinflation21Australia: Public sector job growth ain’t that unusual24China’s 3-arrows of policy stimulus27 Global Economic Outlook Summary4Global Central Bank Watch6Economic Activity Tracking8Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan Economics10Data Watches United States31 Focus: The evolution of payroll seasonality41Euro area42Japan46 Focus: Minding the gap in labor market data50Canada51Mexico53Brazil55Argentina57Andeans59United Kingdom61Emerging Europe64Australia and New Zealand72Korea74ASEAN76India80Regional Data Calendars82Economic and Policy ResearchBruce Kasman(1-212) 834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NAJoseph Lupton(1-212) 834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank NANora Szentivanyi(44-20) 7134-7544nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcManaging EditorMalcolm Barr(44-20) 7134-8326malcolm.barr@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plcGlobal Data Watch•Golidlocks consensus tempered as sticky inflation concerns reappear •While Fed to slow its pace, weaker growth makes cuts easier for ECB•Japan wage pickup keeps BoJ on track for December hike•Next week: US Sep retail sales (0.2% control), China 3Q GDP (3%), ECB (-25bp)Not everything, not everywhere, not all at onceThe post-pandemic expansion has not dislodged magical thinking on inflation. On the heels of a quarter century in which global CPI inflation remained in a narrow 1-2% range, the prevailing pre-pandemic wisdom was that central banks’ stabilization of medium-term expectations insured that inflation would remain anchored to target. A synchronized and sustained surge in core CPI inflation over 2021-23 thus represented a major shock. While it was relatively clear that inflation would abate from its 5% peak level as supply shocks faded, it was unclear whether the disinflation process that took hold last year – lowering core inflation to a 3%ar in 2H23 – reflected gravitational forces of anchored expectations that would quickly return inflation to pre-pandemic norms. It was also unclear whether this synchronized inflation surge would follow a similar pattern down in an environment in which growth performance gaps have opened. As recession fears eased, the forecasting community gelled onto a goldilocks consensus as central bank and private sector projections anticipated that everything (core inflation and policy rates) was on a path to its pre-pandemic norm, most everywhere, over a relatively short time horizon. This perspective has not been shaken by this year’s disinflation stall. Although a fall in energy CPI inflation has pushed headline inflation lower, global core CPI in both the DM and EM (ex. Turkey and China) is tracking a faster than 3%ar rise in the first nine months of this year