Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary October 9-110715046

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global October 9Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Dominic J KrummenacherStrategist Dominic.Krummenacher@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9781 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCLenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiroki YagiResearch Associate Hiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5412 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Gek Teng KhooStrategist Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303 FOMC minutes show divide over decision to cut by 50bp; RBNZ cuts by 50bp; risk sentiment weighs on JPY; USTs sell off ahead of CPI; Fed's Logan argues for a "more gradual" path to neutral; RBI maintains rate and updates stance to neutral; DXY at 102.8 (+0.3%); US 10y at 4.073% (+6.1bp).• FOMC minutes reveal there was some divide among participants over the 50bp cut; while a “substantial majority” backed the decision, “some” members would have preferred a 25bp cut and “a few others” could have supported a smaller move.• The New Zealand rate curve bull-steepens and NZD (-1.2%) sells off after the RBNZ steps up the easing pace, delivering a 50bp rate cut, and the statement is interpreted as signaling further easing.• Higher US yields, strength in global equities, and China’s Finance Ministry’s scheduling of a press briefing on fiscal policy boost risk-sentiment, which weighs on safe-haven currencies; USD/JPY rises 0.8%.• USTs sell off led by the belly of the curve ahead of the US CPI release, where CPI fixings are pricing in an upside surprise relative to the consensus expectation.• Dallas Fed President Logan says that after the 50bp cut in September, she favors a “more gradual” path back to neutral moving forward; the market-implied probability of a November Fed rate cut falls below 80%.• India rates outperform (1y INR NDOIS: -6bp) after the RBI maintains its policy rate, as expected, but updates the monetary policy stance to “neutral” from the more hawkish “withdrawal of accommodation” stance given that the inflation and growth dynamics are "well balanced."Please refer to our latest Global Macro Strategist (A Phoenix from the Ashes?), Global EM Strategist (Recalibrating) as well as our recent publications and collaborations (Korea Reform Renaissance: Korea's WGBI Inclusion Confirmed).Developed MarketsUnited States: USTs cheapened as market participants await the US CPI data on Thursday. Inflation swaps imply a 2.37% y/y value for the September CPI, which is above the consensus Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certi