Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary October 10-110736903

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global October 10Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Zoe K StraussStrategist Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0407 Lenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiromu UezatoResearch Associate Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Gek Teng KhooStrategist Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+David CuevaStrategist David.Cueva@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2143 Beat in US CPI, but OER slows; USTs twist-steepen amid opposing catalysts; Fed's Bostic open to skipping November cut; Bunds little impacted by ECB accounts; SEK and NOK unfazed by domestic data; PBoC accepting applications for its swap facility; DXY at 102.86 (-0.1%); US 10y at 4.061% (-1.2bp).• September US CPI shows mild acceleration with strength in goods and the trimmed mean increasing to 0.30% m/m (P: 0.18%), though OER steps down meaningfully after an upside surprise in August.• USTs struggle for direction amid a beat in September CPI that is offset by higher-than-expected jobless claims, a strong 30y auction, and Fed-speak with competing viewpoints on the path ahead.• Atlanta Fed President Bostic says he is open to skipping a rate cut in November if the data suggest it is appropriate, adding there are elements in the September CPI release that “validate that view.” • Accounts from the September ECB meeting which show the Governing Council was concerned about the lack of productivity pickup have little effect on Bunds, which twist-steepen in sympathy with USTs. • Scandinavian currencies are unfazed by domestic data; SEK is flat despite a beat in Sweden’s monthly GDP, while NOK (0.4%) strengthens due to a rise in oil prices even as Norway inflation comes in soft.• CNY and CNH outperform other AxJ currencies amid a rally in China onshore equity markets (CSI 300: +1.1%) after the PBoC begins accepting application for its equity swap facility.Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (ECB Preview: Stepping Up The Pace; Canada Economics and Global Macro Strategy: BoC Watch: Down to the Data; Snippets from China: The PBOC Swap, CNY, Premier Li‘s Symposium, Tesla Buyers).Developed MarketsUnited States: USTs were pulled in opposing directions in a session that had no shortage of macro catalysts. Overnight, price action was fairly muted across the globe as market participants awaited the US CPI release. European duration was little changed by Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment de