IMF-转移支付、超额储蓄和巨大的财政乘数（英）

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2024 SEP Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers Gene Kindberg-Hanlon WP/24/208 © 2024 International Monetary Fund WP/24/208IMF Working Paper Research Department Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers Prepared by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon Authorized for distribution by Rafael Portillo September 2024 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper seeks to show that a New Keynesian model can produce highly persistent and large output responses to fiscal transfers and excess wealth, in line with recent empirical literature. The introduction of myopia to households to allow realistic degrees of dissaving from wealth and accumulated transfers, alongside more standard Keynesian features, achieves this goal. Model IRFs closely match the high fiscal multipliers from the tax stimulus SVAR literature, and also have important inflationary consequences. An application of this model to the COVID era, where transfer payments in the United States supported an accumulation of ``excess savings", results in inflation rising by over 1 percentage point for several years as well as a persistent increase in output over the same horizon. Finally, under the same framework and calibration, it is found that high debt and a weak fiscal rule can dull the transmission of monetary policy due to the wealth effect from higher interest payments. JEL Classification Numbers: E21, E43, E62 Keywords: Fiscal multipliers; excess savings; COVID-19; inflation Author’s E-Mail Address: gkindberg-hanlon@imf.org IMF WORKING PAPERS Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal MultipliersINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3WORKING PAPERS Transfers, Excess Savings, and Large Fiscal Multipliers Prepared by Gene Kindberg-Hanlon 1IntroductionGDP growth in the United States in the immediate years after the pandemic was unexpectedlystrong, with real consumption in particular exceeding trend growth. Much of the debate aroundwhat fueled strong household consumption has focused on the role of ‘excess savings’ that wereaccumulated during the early stages of the pandemic (Aladangady et al., 2022; Aggarwal et al.,2023). This excess saving was almost entirely directly or indirectly the result of a substantialfiscal stimulus package during the pandemic that sustained incomes over this period throughlarge cash transfers, unemployment payments, and employment support.Standard New Keynesian macroeconomic models do not suggest that fiscal tra