美联储-增加税收，减少再融资？抵押贷款利息扣除与货币政策传导（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)More Tax, Less Refi? The Mortgage Interest Deduction andMonetary Policy Pass-ThroughTess Scharlemann and Eileen van Straelen2024-082Please cite this paper as:Scharlemann,Tess, and Eileen van Straelen (2024). “More Tax, Less Refi? The MortgageInterest Deduction and Monetary Policy Pass-Through,” Finance and Economics Discus-sion Series 2024-082.Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.082.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.More Tax, Less Refi? The Mortgage Interest Deductionand Monetary Policy Pass-ThroughTess Scharlemann and Eileen van Straelen∗September 11, 2024AbstractWe study how the mortgage interest deduction (MID) affects refinancing. House-holds who deduct mortgage interest from their taxes face a lower post-tax mortgagerate, reducing the interest savings from refinancing net of taxes. We estimate the effectof the MID on refinancing using the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 as a natu-ral experiment. The TCJA doubled the standard deduction, reducing MID uptake andvalue. We show that, following the TCJA, the refinancing rate amongst householdswho lose the MID increased by 25%. Our results suggest that reducing the MID mayimprove the pass-through of monetary policy when rates fall.1IntroductionMortgage borrowing is an important channel through which monetary policy stimulateseconomic activity (Berger et al. (2021), Abel and Fuster (2021), Beraja et al. (2019)). Interest∗The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by othermembers of the research staff or the Board of Governors. We thank Erik Hembre, Dan Garret, Ben Keys,Andrea Heuson, Jie Yang, Tom Fang Cui, C. Luke Watson, John Driscoll, Elliot Anenberg, and seminarparticipants at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors forvaluable conversations and insights.1rate cuts that lower the cost of mortgage borrowing can spur economic activity. Frictionsthat disrupt refinancing, such as equity levels, (Beraja et al., 2019), competitive barriers,(Agarwal et al., 2015), or employment requirements, (DeFusco and Mondragon, 2020) candampen the pass-through of monetary policy. This paper studies an under-explored frictionto refinancing: the mortgage interest deduction (MID). Because the take-up and value ofthe mortgage interest deduction varies based on local factors