PitchBook-欧洲独角兽——建模神话还是魔法？（英）

1PitchBook Data, Inc.Nizar Tarhuni Executive Vice President of Research and Market IntelligenceDylan Cox, CFA Head of Private Markets ResearchInstitutional Research GroupAnalysisContentsKey takeaways1Introduction3Bear-to-bull scenario analysis6Why this is important for market participants9Caveats—self-sufficiency, power law, nonequity financing, and IPO window10Conclusion11Appendix12Published on 3 October 2024PublishingDesigned by Drew SandersDataCharlie Farber Senior Data AnalystOscar Allaway Data Analystpbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.comEuropean Unicorns—Modelling Myth or Magic?PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most accurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets.Key takeaways • Critical questions emerge, as 54% of the unicorn market was last valued in 2021 or 2022. The European unicorn landscape has grown more than four-fold in the last five years, sitting at an aggregate value of €447.0 billion.1 Since unicorn birthrates peaked in 2021, however, growth has notably slowed. Market valuations have also significantly changed since, but a large part of unicorn value is still at 2021 and 2022 levels. Both dynamics pose questions about how future aggregate value could look in Europe.• The European unicorn landscape could shrink by nearly 6% in a base case. Since 2021 and 2022, several players have prolonged financing and received a more marked-to-market valuation in a more conservatively valued market. We model the potential downside to the European unicorn market by flexing various inputs on the proportion that receives a down round, the magnitude of step-downs since the peak, and the extent to which such companies benefit from the valuation recovery seen so far in 2024. These have resulted in an adjusted value for this part of the market that implies how much is lost when older valuations are marked to current levels.• We believe risks are skewed to the downside, where our worst-case scenario implies nearly €100 billion of market decline. This translates to roughly a 22% decline in aggregate value, assuming a greater step-down since the peak years of 2021 and 2022 and no valuation recovery this year. On the other hand, our bull case assumes a lower proportion of the market will experience a down round, with step-downs in line with the venture market and 2024 recovery greater than wider venture. This implies nearly no aggregate market value is lost, staying flat, which is in line with current trends, where growth rates have plateaued since 2023.Navina Rajan Senior Analyst, EMEA Private Capital navina.rajan@pitchbook.com1: We define the unicorn market/landscape as the cumulative aggregate pre-money valuation of private companies valued at €1.0 billion or more in Europe.2PitchBook Analyst Note: European Unicorns—Modelling Myth or Magic?• Self-sufficiency, power law dynamics, debt, and an IPO window will add caveats to the outcome. Our model is market-based, meaning ther