麦肯锡-2024年9月经济状况展望（英）

September 2024Strategy & Corporate Finance PracticeEconomic conditions outlook, September 2024Executives are less upbeat on current conditions than they were earlier this year, though cautiously optimistic about the months ahead. Political transitions are an increasing concern for countries’ economies.by Sven Smitwith Jeffrey Condon and Krzysztof KwiatkowskiFor the first time since March 2020, surveyed executives primarily see the global economy as stable rather than improving. The latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions reveals more cautious sentiments from respondents on both current global conditions and domestic economies than seen in the previous two quarters—though a plurality of respondents expect each to improve in the next six months.1 While geopolitical instability continues to loom as the top perceived risk to global and domestic growth, in a year when almost half of the world’s population will vote in national elections,2 respondents now cite political transitions second-most often as a threat both globally and at home.Looking at longer-term risks to growth, respondents in all regions see geopolitical instability as the chief global threat in the next ten years. Other areas of greatest concern vary by region, with respondents in Greater China3 pointing to energy-related topics and those in North America focusing on government-related issues. At the company level, respondents consider it less and less likely that their companies will increase their workforce size, while expectations for profits and customer demand remain relatively positive and stable. Respondents report less improvement in economic conditions but remain primarily optimisticRespondents’ assessments of the global economy and their home economies are less upbeat than they were in March and June, with smaller shares reporting improvement (Exhibit 1). However, the share reporting worse conditions in the global economy hasn’t grown dramatically since the previous survey—rather, a larger share of respondents say there has been no change. For the first time since early March 2020, respondents are more likely to report that conditions stayed the same than report that they improved. 1 The online survey was in the field from August 28 to September 6, 2024, and garnered responses from 1,203 participants representing the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures. To adjust for differences in response rates, the data are weighted by the contribution of each respondent’s nation to global GDP.2 Mark John and Sumanta Sen, “How this year of elections is set to reshape global politics,” Reuters, July 9, 2024. 3 Includes Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan China.Geopolitical instability continues to loom as the top perceived risk to global and domestic growth.2Economic conditions outlook, September 2024When reporting expectations for the next six months, respondents paint a somewhat cheerier picture for both the global economy and their own