Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary September 5-110206130

M Update Global Macro Commentary | Global September 5Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCAlexandra MaierStrategist Alexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428 Zoe K StraussStrategist Zoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0407 Lenoy DujonUS/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+Hiroki YagiResearch Associate Hiroki.Yagi1@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5412 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Gek Teng KhooStrategist Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303 Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+Arnav GuptaStrategist Arnav.Gupta@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0382 Mixed data in the US; strong Japan real wages data; European duration rallies and OAT/Bund spread narrows intraday; oil-sensitive currencies underperform; THB outperforms regional peers; RBI Governor Das offers hawkish remarks; DXY at 101.06 (-0.3%); US 10y at 3.727% (-2.8bp).• Roundabout moves in the UST market, with USTs ultimately bull-steepening after a miss in ADP Job Growth sends yields lower, only to be offset by stronger-than-expected ISM Services with a beat in the New Orders and Prices Paid indices. • JGBs partially retrace overnight strength, and USD/JPY falls sharply in the Tokyo morning after a strong July Japan labor release with an unexpected monthly increase in real wages.• US data continue to dominate market sentiment with European duration rallying following the soft US jobs data; French OATs outperform slightly, with the OAT/Bund spread narrowing intraday amid the appointment of Barnier as French Prime Minister.• With Brent crude oil futures remaining near YTD lows (~$73/bbl), oil-sensitive currencies underperform in the G10 complex, with CAD and NOK becoming the only two G10 currencies that did not strengthen against the USD.• THB outperforms regional peers (USD/THB: -1.1%) amid in-line August inflation data, easing of political uncertainty, gains in local equities (SET: + 2.8%), and a rally in gold prices (XAU: +0.8%).• RBI Governor Das offers hawkish remarks, arguing that the RBI’s growth estimate is “not out of place” despite slower-than-expected 2Q24 GDP growth, adding that the RBI must keep its focus on the “last mile of disinflation.” Please refer to our recent publications and collaborations (France Economics, Equities & Macro Strategy: PM Selected - What Does It Mean & What's Next?; Canada Economics and Global Macro Strategy: NDP Ends Power-Sharing Deal with Liberals; ECB Preview: Cuts Must Go On (Gradually); Canada Economics and Global Macro Strategy: BoC Reaction: Three in a Row; Turkey Economics and Sovereign Credit Strategy: MTP: Disinflation Remains Priority).Developed Markets United States: Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Res