2024年一季度量化视角：美国市场洞察（英）

US Market InsightsQUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVESQ1 2024ContactResearchPITCHBOOK QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVES: US MARKET INSIGHTS2COPYRIGHT © 2024 by PitchBook Data, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means—graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, and information storage and retrieval systems—without the express written permission of PitchBook Data, Inc. Contents are based on information from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Nothing herein should be construed as any past, current or future recommendation to buy or sell any security or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor may wish to consider and is not to be relied upon as such or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.IntroductionPitchBook Data, Inc.Published on February 9, 2024Pessimism entering 2023 has given way to renewed confidence about an economic soft landing in 2024. Rates have remained elevated, but market expectations are that a higher-for-not-much-longer environment is upon us. Positive economic indicators, improving credit conditions, and lower inflation have private market investors looking forward to this year and beyond. Still, valuations across many areas of the market appear high relative to the current interest rate regime, particularly in tracking VC, buyout, and real estate pricing. Plus, corporate default rates trended higher throughout 2023. The new environment has led to a bifurcation across sectors and strategies. As always, there are risks and opportunities for allocators investing in private capital markets. We proceed with cautious optimism as the Federal Reserve (Fed) appears to be done with the latest series of tightening measures, the private markets have had plenty of time to come to terms with the worth of their portfolios, and signs of a risk-on attitude in the public markets could finally unjam exit activity.Zane Carmean, CFA, CAIA Lead Analyst, Quantitative and Funds Researchzane.carmean@pitchbook.com US Market Insightspbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Hilary Wiek, CFA, CAIA Senior Strategisthilary.wiek@pitchbook.com John Gabbert Founder, CEONizar Tarhuni Vice President, Institutional Research and EditorialDaniel Cook, CFA Head of Quantitative ResearchNathan Schwartz Quantitative Research Analystnathan.schwartz@pitchbook.com Susan Hu Associate Quantitative Research Analystsusan.hu@pitchbook.com 3PITCHBOOK QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVES: US MARKET INSIGHTSMacro landscapeKey takeaways4PITCHBOOK QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVES: US MARKET INSIGHTS•The engineering of a soft landing may actually be happening, given recent GDP figures, thus removing some downside uncertainty in the private markets and bringing some hope to an unfreezing of deal activity.•Faith in an economic recovery is stil