汽车及零部件行业：上海车展的新能源汽车引领中国汽车的未来

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 15Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin]汽车及零部件行业Automobiles & Components Sector [Table_BasicInfo]Sector Report: Automobiles & Components Sector 中文版 Toliver Ma 马守彰 行业报告： 汽车及零部件行业 Chinese version (852) 2509 5317 toliver.ma@gtjas.com.hk 23 April 2019 [Table_MainInfo]NEVs in Shanghai Auto Show Spark the Future of China Auto 上海车展的新能源汽车引领中国汽车的未来Strong new energy vehicle (NEV) development in 2019 onwards. At thisyear's Shanghai Auto Show (the "Auto Show") we witnessed numerous newNEVs to be offered in 2019, ranging from the Beijing Benz EQC and FAWAudi Q2L e-tron from the premium segment to the ORA R1 and BYD e2 in thelower-end segment. There will be regulatory push from the government,urging OEMs to produce NEVs. Emerging brands gained a lot of attentionduring the Auto Show, showcasing their first commercial models. Thesebrands face two main problems: 1) production difficulties and 2) profitabilityand cash flow.The NDRC is mulling more policies to stimulate the auto market. Theleaked proposal includes to relax control over licence plates. Currently thereare seven cities in China applying control over licence to curb congestion andair pollution. We are cautious on the feasibility and effectiveness of suchplans, as relaxing licence quota by 50% and 100% would only increase 1.2%and 2.2% of auto sales, but would worsen the other problems with littleimprovement in social wellbeing. Maintain "Neutral" rating for the sector. We are expecting full-year autosales growth to be in a range of 0-3%, as supported by government stimulusand the stabilizing economy. We believe that stock performance hasoverreacted to the unconfirmed proposal as have overestimated the impacttowards the auto market. Our top pick remains Geely Auto (00175 HK) with a"Buy" rating. Stock price exceeded our TP, we suggest to take profit forshort-term investors.2019 年开始强劲的新能源汽车发展。在今年的上海车展上，我们见证了 2019 年推出的众多新款新能源汽车，从高端的北京奔驰 EQC 和一汽奥迪 Q2L e-tron 到低端的 ORA R1 和BYD e2。政府的监管推动将驱使汽车制造商生产新能源汽车。造车新势力在车展期间引起了广泛关注，展示了他们的第一款量产车型。这些品牌将面临两个主要问题：1）生产困难和 2）盈利能力和现金流。 国家发改委正在考虑更多刺激汽车市场的政策。泄露的提案包括放宽对牌照的控制。目前，中国有七个城市实施限牌，以遏制交通拥堵和空气污染。我们对此放松措施的可行性和有效性持谨慎态度，因为放松 50%和 100%的牌照配额只会增加 1.2%和 2.2%的汽车销售，但会使其他问题恶化，而社会福祉几乎没有显着改善。维持行业评级为“中性”。在政府刺激措施和稳定经济的支持下，我们预计全年汽车销售增长将在 0-3%的范围内。我们认为股票表现对未经证实的提案反应过度，并高估了对汽车市场的影响。我们的首选股仍为吉利汽车（00175 HK），评级为“买入”。其股价已超过我们的目标价，我们建议短线投资者先行获利。[Table_InvestInfo]Rating: Neutral Maintained 评级： 中性(维持)2China Auto Sales 中国汽车销售 Source: CAAM, Guotai Junan International. HK-listed OEM 52-week Performance 香港上市汽车制造商 52 周表现 Source: Bloomberg. [Table_CompanyFinance]Company Name Code Price Rating 18PER 19PER 20PER 19ROE 19PBR 19Yield 公司名称 编号 股价(HK$)投资评级 市盈率(x) 市盈率(x) 市盈率(x) 净资产收益(%)市净率(x) 股息率(%) Geely Auto 00175 HK 18.12 Buy 11.4 9.7 8.7 28.0 2.4 2.9 Dongfeng Motor Group 00489 HK 8.54 Reduce 5.0 5.1 4.8 9.6 0.4 3.2 Brilliance China 01114 HK 9.59 Accumulate 7.3 5.3 4.4 22.8 1.1 2.8 Nexteer 01316