电信服务行业：每用户平均收入处于5G到来之前的低谷；恢复中移动评级并评为买入，中电信中联通评为中性（摘要）

中国三大电信运营商仍身处数据资费的激烈竞争之中，严格的资费监管也将对盈利构成压力，我们谨慎看待短期盈利增长前景。我们恢复对三大电信运营商的评级，并分析了我们所认为的以下行业四大催化剂：#1: 预计混改将继续推进，但中电信和中联通不太可能合并。我们对潜在的结果不予置评，但我们认为任何合并计划都意味着1990年以来国企改革的倒退，并可能带来人员冗余和2G/3G网络共享方面的挑战。#2: 预计2019年中移动将把现金派息率从2018年的48%提升至50%。中移动的财务状况远好于其持股28.5%的中国铁塔，因此可能面临着来自少数股东投资者的压力、考虑将2019年派息率升至50%从而与中国铁塔相一致。#3: 5G推出在即，并将更多地受到企业和政府机构的推动。5G的最初用户可能会是希望推进无人驾驶、工业物联网、视频监控和边缘计算行业发展的企业和政府机构。我们预计2020-2022年中移动将获得较大的5G市场份额。#4: 中国的5G资本支出增长可能会慢于4G。5G网络的推出可能会追随5G应用的发展，而不会像4G那样快速推出、全面覆盖。因此，我们的2019-2020年资本支出预测较市场预测低4%-13%。中国铁塔在香港上市后，我们对中国三大电信运营商（中移动、中电信、中联通）恢复评级。中移动：预计股价将受5G和现金股息的推动；恢复评级评为买入，目标价96.6港元，上涨空间24%。中电信：ARPU承压；恢复评级评为中性，目标价4.6港元。中联通：市场对股权激励计划持乐观看法；恢复评级评为中性，目标价格8.9港元，中联通A股目标价人民币5.4元。*全文翻译随后提供PM SummaryWe are cautious on near-term earnings growth. The main growth drivers forChina’s Big Three telcos, wireless and wireline data traffic businesses, comprise吕东风, PhD (研究助理)+86(10)6627-3123 | donald.lu@ghsl.cn北京高华证券有限责任公司侯雪婷 (分析师)执业证书编号:S1420515060001+86(21)2401-8694 | tina.hou@ghsl.cn北京高华证券有限责任公司中国 电信服务ARPU处于5G到来之前的低谷；恢复中移动评级并评为买入，中电信/中联通评为中性 (摘要)2018年10月9日 | 8:00PM CST证券研究报告北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。 PM Summary15G is coming and will be different than 4G6China telco capex to turn positive in 2019 7Financials: Decelerating growth and steady EBITDA margin11Valuation: Factoring in ROE and cash dividends14M&A framework18China Mobile (0941.HK): 5G and cash dividend expected to drive share price; reinstate at Buy20China Mobile Financials21China Telecom (0728.HK): ARPU under pressure; reinstate at Neutral24China Telecom Financials25China Unicom (0762.HK/600050.SS): Consensus optimistic on share incentive plan; reinstate at Neutral28China Unicom Financials29Appendix32信息披露附录332018年10月9日2全球投资研究中国 电信服务目录38%-56% and 7%-46% of total revenues as of 1H18. However, rather than protectreturns on 4G and FTTH (fiber to home) investments, the companies have engaged inaggressive competitive activity. Specifically, CU started a limited price war on wirelessdata services in early 2017, CT launched an unlimited data package in late 2017, andCM sharply cut prices in mid-2018. In addition, regulatory curbs on voice and dataroaming were implemented in 3Q17 and 3Q18, respectively. Meanwhile, CM hasaggressively gained market share in wireline data service with low ARPU and continuesto pressure CT and CU. Accordingly, we forecast total service revenue growth todecelerate in 2H18 and 2019. Catalyst #1: We expect more mixed-ownership reform but a potential merger of CT andCU seems unlikely. On September 4, 2018, Bloomberg, citing people familiar with thematter, reported that China’s top leaders are reviewing a proposal to merge CU andCT to speed up 5G development. Both CU and CT have since denied such acombination is currently in the works and we note that such a potential transaction wouldrepresent a reversal of China’s SOE reform since 1990 and could present challengesin terms of headcou