汽车行业双周报：节后销量回暖如期而至，三月车市正式步入正轨

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 汽车行业 Automobiles Sector [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Automobiles Sector 中文版 Ivan Wu 吴凱翔 行业报告： 汽车行业 Chinese version (852) 2509 2649 ivan.wu@gtjas.com.hk 28 February 2023 [Table_MainInfo] Bi-Weekly Update: Sales Recovered as Predicted after the Festival; the Auto Market Will be Officially on Track in March 双周报：节后销量回暖如期而至，三月车市正式步入正轨  Sales are expected to be restored, and high sales growth is expected in the next few months. New vehicle models have been launched intensively in the past two weeks. Industry differentiation is intensifying and self-owned brand transformation is accelerating. "Self-owned brand rise + high exports business growth" will be the normal. We reiterate stock prices of leading independent NEV companies with strong sales and performance realization capabilities will rebound first. Opportunities in the auto sector still lie in OEMs, and some component companies will also benefit.  Sales recovered as predicted after the Festival. It is expected that the sales of PV in March will be on track. The CPCA’s predictions on PVs retail sales in the narrow sense in Feb. are 1.35 mn units, up 7.2% yoy and 4.3% mom; NEV retail sales are around 40.0 mn units, up 46.6% yoy and 20.3% mom, and the penetration rate is 29.6%. In Feb., PV sales were consistent with our previous predictions, and the trend of recovering PV market after the Festival appeared. With the new round of local governments promoting vehicle consumptions via intensively introducing policies to stimulate end-market needs, together with many cities will launch Spring Auto Shows in late Feb-to-Mar, the foot traffic will significantly rebound. Under the joint effects of low base, consumption recovery, OEM promotions and policy expectations, in Mar., PV sales are expected to officially enter the right track.  The EU ban on FV bill was passed, and domestic NEV policies can still be expected. The EU passed the FV bill for 2035 on 14 Feb., domestic auto export business is expected to surge. Plus, countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway have clearly clarified the time for FV sales. A number of car companies have also announced the time slots of comprehensive electrification, and the bill issued may promote the accelerated development of the global NEV industry. On 21 Feb., the MIIT issued the "NEV Models Exempt from Vehicle Purchase Tax" (62nd batch). Many new energy vehicles are listed. We believe that more automotive industry supporting policies will be introduced in the short term.  A landscape of several major powers maintained, and opportunities still lie in OEMs. For the OEM sector, we recommend Geely Auto (00175 HK), Great Wall Motor