电子行业双周报：混合现实将引领新一轮消费电子创新周期

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 电子行业 Electronics Sector [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Electronics Sector 中文版 Jack Liu 柳晨 行业报告： 电子行业 Chinese version (852) 2509 2149 chen.liu@gtjas.com.hk 28 February 2023 [Table_MainInfo] Bi-Weekly Wrap: Mixed Reality Will Lead New Consumer Electronics Innovation Cycle 双周报：混合现实将引领新一轮消费电子创新周期  A new round of innovation cycle will create brand new industry ecosystem. Consumers nowadays are no strangers to virtual-reality (VR) products, smartphones, tablets and laptop computers. Users are familiar with application scenarios such as office works, video watching, gaming and modeling. Mixed-reality (MR) devices can convert these basic application scenarios in the flat two-dimensional cyberspace into a more visible and more operational three-dimensional world, which is fundamentally destructive to our current way of life. We expect MR devices and application ecosystem to revolutionize the way we produce and the way we live in the foreseeable future.  MR will create a huge incremental market. According to International Data Corporation (IDC), annual sales volume of VR devices reached approximately 10 million units in recent years. We anticipate potential demand of MR devices in the future to be similar with that of current VR devices. Average selling price (ASP) of MR devices are expected to drop to the same level of high-end iPhones (around RMB10,000) after mass production. Jointly considering our sales volume forecast and ASP assumption, we project incremental market scale of MR will reach RMB100 billion per year.  The supply chain of first-generation MR devices is basically established. It’s been more than 5 years since the project initiation of Apple’s first-generation MR product line. We believe the certainty of entering MR supply chain is more significant than the value elasticity of a single device. Key players in the MR supply chain will benefit, including Luxshare Precision (002475 SZ), HYC Tech (688001 SH), Zhaowei Machinery (003021 SZ) and JPT Opto-electronics (688025 SH).  Catalysts：MR product release and pre-sale launch.  Risks: MR product launch delay; worse-than-expected competitiveness and sales performance of MR products.  新一轮创新周期将催生全新的行业生态。当今消费者对于虚拟现实、智能手机、平板、笔记本电脑这些产品并不陌生，用户对于办公、观看视频、游戏、做模型这些应用场景也十分熟悉。混合现实（MR）设备可以将二维扁平网络世界下的基础应用场景转化到更具可视性和可操作性的三维世界中，这本身对于我们现有的生活方式是具有破坏性的。我们期待混合现实设备以及应用生态能够在可见的未来颠覆我们的生产和生活方式。  混合现实将会带来巨大的增量市场。根据国际数据公司（IDC），近几年虚拟现实设备的年销售量大约在 1,000 万台左右。我们预计混合现实设备未来的潜在需求与目前的虚拟现实设备相若。在量产后，混合现实设备的平均单价有望下降至高端 iPhone 的价格水平（约人民币 10,000 元）。综合考虑我们的销量预测与单价假设，我们预计 MR 每年将带来约人民币1,000 亿元的增量市场规模。  初代混合现实供应链已经基本建立。苹果的初代混合现实产品线立项至今已超过 5 年。我们认为进入混合现实供应链的确定性比单机价值量弹性更为重要。混合现实供应链中的关键参与者将迎来利好，包括立讯精密（002475 SZ）、华兴源创（