博彩行业：春节假期赴澳门旅客人数恢复至2019年的37.5%，符合预期

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 5 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 博彩行业 Gaming Sector [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Gaming Sector 中文版 Noah Hudson 行业报告： 博彩行业 Chinese version (86755) 2397 6684 noah.hudson@gtjas.com.hk 31 January 2023 [Table_MainInfo] CNY Visitation in Line, Recovered to 37.5% of that in 2019 春节假期赴澳门旅客人数恢复至2019年的37.5%，符合预期  The number of visitors to Macau during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday recovered to 37.5% of that in 2019. During mainland China’s seven-day statutory holiday period from January 21 through 27 inclusive, there were a total of 451,047 visitors to Macao. That’s an increase of 296.7% from the 113,699 visitors during the same seven-day holiday period in 2022, but equivalent to just 37.5% of the 1.21 million visitors to Macao during the same holiday period in 2019.  Gaming revenue per visitor may not have been as high as hoped. Typically, visitors from mainland China bet more at the gaming tables than visitors from any other jurisdiction. This year’s CNY holiday period had a lower proportion of visitors from mainland China (58.7%) than in the pre-Covid years (around 70%).  We maintain our "Outperform" sector rating and suggest to accumulate on share price pull-backs. Overall, we think that Macao visitation during CNY was in line with (perhaps at the low end of) market expectations, but was not overly impressive. Current Macao gaming share prices and valuations reflect optimistic market expectations of continued recovery not only for 2023 but also for 2024. We think that, unless there is some significant disaster, the market will maintain this optimistic view in the coming months and quarters, even if short-term gaming results miss expectations. Therefore, we think that going forward, short-term missed expectations (if any) that result in share price pull-backs will generally be accumulation opportunities, since we expect investor sentiment would bounce back as the market maintains its longer-term expectation of a full recovery for Macao gaming by 2H2023 or 2024.  Risks: Macao gaming revenue could be lower than expected if the proportion of lower quality visitors to Macao increases. Macao’s January gaming revenue (to be reported on 1 Feb.) could miss market expectations.  春节假期赴澳门旅客人数恢复至 2019 年的 37.5%。中国内地春节七天假期期间(1 月 21日至 27 日)，赴澳门旅客达 451,047 人次，较 2022 年同期 7 天假期的 113,699 人次增加296.7%，但仅相当于 2019 年同期 121 万人次的 37.5%。  每位访客的博彩收入可能没有预期的那么高。通常，来自中国内地的游客在赌桌上的赌注比来自任何其他地区的游客都要高。今年春节假期，来自中国内地的游客比例（58.7%）低于疫情前的水平（约 70%）。  我们维持“跑赢大市”的行业评级，并建议逢低收集。总体而言，我们认为春节期间的赴澳门旅客数量符合（可能处于低端）市场预期，但并没有特别乐观。现时澳门博彩股价及估值反映了市场对 2023 年，甚至 2024 年的乐观预期。我们认为，除非发生重大事件，否则市场将在未来几个月和几个季度保持这种乐观的预期，即使短期博彩业绩低于预期。因此，我们认为，展望未来，短期业绩低于预期（如有）导致股价回调往往是收集机会，因为我们预计投资者情绪将反弹并且市场维持其长期预期，即澳门博彩业将在 2023 年下半