2022年12月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：多家房企实施股权增资，行业资产负债状况将改善

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 2023 年 1 月 10 日 远东研究·行业研究 摘 要 作者：申学峰 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 商品房量价：12 月份 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比减少 21.98%，成交量仍大幅低于往年同期。百城新建住宅平均价格同比下跌 0.02%，涨幅较上月回落 0.06 个百分点。 土地成交价款：11 月份全国土地成交价款为 1530.23 亿元，较上年同期的 3109.01 亿元下降 50.78%，房地产行业新土地项目投资明显减少。 政策：12 月份，中央经济工作会议强调推动行业重组并购，防范化解优质头部房企风险，改善资产负债状况。中央财办提出“在住房消费等领域还存在一些妨碍消费需求释放的限制性政策，这些消费潜力要予以释放”，预计未来各地的住房限购政策会逐步取消。地方层面不断出台的购房支持政策，包括提供购房补贴、放松限购、降低房贷首付比例、提高房贷额度、放宽房贷资格限制等，新政策出台频率高且力度大。 重点房企：12 月份百强房企操盘销售金额同比下降30.8%；滨江集团、荣安地产、金科股份、阳光城、荣盛发展、泰禾集团等房企为旗下公司提供担保；碧桂园、金地集团、建业集团获银行大额授信；合景泰富、新城发展、雅居乐、旭辉完成股权融资。 债券发行与到期：12 月份房地产行业共发行债券 510.99 亿元，偿还债券 406.64 亿元，通过债市净融资 104.35 亿元。 信用事件与利差：12 月份有 12 只债券展期。无主体和债券的信用级别被下调。12 月末兴业房地产行业债券信用利差（中位数）较上月末上升 28.65BP。 总结与展望：房地产行业股票融资解禁后，部分房企已完成配股或增发，预计大量股权融资即将落地。房企可以补充权益资本、降低财务风险，出险房企可以借机修复信用。从需求端来看，疫情管控结束、限购政策逐步取消将促进新建商品房需求，有利于房企回笼资金。但新增城镇人口减少、出生人口减少，商品房需求在萎缩，房企未来仍有库存去化压力。 相关研究报告： 1.《2022 年 11 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：房地产企业股票融资放开，行业财务风险有望降低》，2022.12.20 2.《2022 年 10 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售再显颓势，行业债券信用利差走阔》，2022.11.15 3.《2022 年 9 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态：商品房销售弱势回暖，房企债券融资继续净流出》，2022.10.18 多家房企实施股权增资，行业资产负债状况将改善 ——2022 年 12 月房地产行业观察与债市运行动态 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Monthly Industry Observation of China January 10th, 2023 Summary In terms of sales volumes and prices of commercialized buildings, the floor space of commercialized buildings sold in 30 large and medium-sized cities has declined by 21.98% year-on-year in December, which was still significantly lower than in the same period of previous years. The average price of newly built residential buildings in “100 cities” has decreased by 0.02% year-on-year, and the increase was down 0.02 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of real estate land purchase, the transaction value of land in November was 153.023 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.78% from 310.901 billion yuan in the same period of the previous year, and the investment in new land projects in the real estate industry decreased significantly. In terms of policies, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized promoting industry restructuring and M&A, preventing and resolving the risks of high-quality leading real estate companies, and improving the balance sheet. The Central Finance Office proposed that “there are still some restrictive policies that hinder the release of consumer demand in housing consumption and other fields, and these consumption potentials should be released". It is expected that the housing purchase restriction policies in various regions will be gradually abolished in the future. The support policies for housing purchase has been constantly introduced in various regions, including providing subsidies for housing purchase, relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing the down payment ratio of housing loans, increasing the amount of housing loans, relaxing the restric