纺织服装行业双周报：线下消费正在复苏，“跑赢大市”

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 10 Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Equity Research Sector Report 股票研究 行业报告 证券研究报告 [Table_LeftMargin] 纺织服装行业 Textiles & Apparel Sector [Table_BasicInfo] Sector Report: Textiles & Apparel Sector 中文版 Hansen Tang 汤瀚森 行业报告： 纺织服装行业 Chinese version (86755) 2397 6884 hansen.tang@gtjas.com.hk 3 January 2023 [Table_MainInfo] Bi-Weekly Wrap: Offline Consumption Is Recovering, "Outperform" 双周报：线下消费正在复苏,“跑赢大市”  The reopening has been accelerating. As the recent surge in Covid-19 cases in China reduced people's willingness to go out in the short term, domestic retail sales remained under pressure in the short term. However, the rate of infection in major cities exceeded our previous expectation. As number of infections may peak in advance, we expect the pace of recovery in offline consumption to accelerate. The recent measures announced by the government clearly point to a way to boost domestic consumption in 2023. As China is set to remove almost all Covid restrictions in January, we expect retail sales of apparel products in China to substantially recover in 2023.  Nike’s earnings in FY2023Q2 beat expectations. In 2QFY2023, Nike’s revenue increased by 17.2% YoY to US$13.32 billion, and net income recorded US$1.33 billion, which was flat YoY, beating market expectations. Inventories were up by 43% YoY to US$9.33 billion and declined by 3.5% QoQ. The management mentioned on its conference call that its inventory situation in China has returned to a healthy level by the end of Nov. 2022.  We expect a turning point of order volume and capacity utilization of domestic textile manufacturing companies in 2Q2023. Although manufacturing orders have been depressed since 2H2022 due to high overseas inventories and inflation, both issues are easing at the margins.  We maintain "Outperform" rating for the textiles and apparel sector. We recommend choosing sportswear brands with sound long term inventory management. We recommend Li Ning (02331 HK), Anta Sports (02020 HK), Xtep (01368 HK) and Topsports (06110 HK).  Risks: 1) Global pandemic resurgence; 2) higher-than-expected global inflation; 3) slower-than-expected destocking pace; and 4) increase in raw material prices  重新开放的步伐已在加快。随着近期中国新冠病毒感染病例激增，人们短期内外出意愿有所降低，国内零售销售短期仍面临压力。然而，主要城市的感染率超出了我们之前的预期。随着感染人数可能提前达到峰值，我们预计线下消费复苏节奏将加快。政府近期宣布的一系列措施为 2023 年提振国内消费指明了方向。随着中国将在 1 月份取消几乎所有相关疫情限制措施，我们预计 2023 年中国服装零售销售将迎来实质性复苏。  Nike 2023 财年第二季度业绩超预期。Nike 2023 财年第二季度收入同比增长 27%至 133.2亿美元，归母净利录得 13.3 亿美元，同比基本持平，超市场预期。库存同比增长 43%至93.3 亿美元，环比下降 3.5%。管理层在电话会议上提到，截至 2022 年 11 月底，其中国区的库存状况已恢复到健康水平。  我们预计 2023 年第二季度国内纺织制造企业的订单和产能利用率有望迎来拐点。尽管2022 年下半年以来海外高库存与高通胀的问题导致制造订单持续低迷，但以上两个问题正边际缓解。  我们维持纺织服装行业“跑赢大市”的评级。长期看，我们推荐库存管理完善的运动服饰品牌。我们推荐李宁（02331 HK）、安踏体育（02020 HK）、特步（01368 HK）和滔搏（06110 HK）。  风险：1）全球疫情反复；2）全球通胀超预期；3）去库