纺织服装行业2023年度策略：《拨开云雾，静候拐点》

纺织服装2023年度策略——《拨开云雾，静候拐点》2023 Annual Strategy for Textile & Apparel Sector Scatter the Clouds, Wait for the Turning Point盛开 Kai Sheng k.sheng@htisec.com梁希 Xi Liang xi.liang@htisec.com周梦轩 Mengxuan Zhou mx.zhou@htisec.com丁贝渝 Beiyu Ding k.sheng@htisec.com2022年12月4日本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer)Equity – Asia Research2A股重点个股梳理根据wind一致预期，2023年纺织制造和品牌的净利润增速中枢接近，增速居前三的为开润股份、歌力思、太平鸟。For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.com表：A股重点个股主要财务数据增速及预测增速所属行业细分行业公司名称收入增速归母净利润增速预测收入增速预测净利润增速22Q122Q222Q322Q122Q222Q32022202320222023纺织制造上游纱线百隆东方5.4%-2.8%7.8%54.6%31.9%8.5%8.3%12.1%-2.7%0.4%华孚时尚7.9%-6.8%14.5%14.4%-16.4%-94.4%3.5%11.4%-1.2%19.0%富春染织44.0%-4.5%-2.0%-32.7%46.4%-65.8%3.9%39.5%-14.5%36.3%新澳股份40.2%9.2%6.3%47.4%37.5%14.2%21.9%19.0%29.9%23.6%下游服装辅料伟星股份33.6%17.4%11.5%45.1%28.7%28.2%19.6%19.3%26.8%19.3%皮革安利股份9.4%-1.1%-3.2%512.3%-78.2%-79.7%8.1%21.9%69.1%-10.3%兴业科技-5.8%-8.9%52.8%-80.6%-50.4%30.7%23.7%28.7%11.7%25.6%成品制造鲁泰A59.0%42.7%39.3%113.8%197.1%222.4%35.5%9.2%116.0%16.5%盛泰集团30.5%19.9%15.0%43.4%2.1%97.1%23.1%17.6%42.6%25.6%健盛集团28.5%45.3%-7.7%74.1%73.9%10.1%21.6%17.0%89.1%22.4%台华新材27.9%0.3%-21.8%17.2%-23.7%-50.1%10.0%31.4%5.3%54.2%华利集团11.4%28.5%23.3%12.4%28.0%25.1%20.4%17.9%21.7%18.7%户外牧高笛56.1%64.7%56.0%73.4%137.1%-5.0%65.1%34.6%107.7%43.2%浙江自然46.6%13.2%-1.2%37.8%18.0%-45.4%24.7%24.8%20.8%26.8%箱包开润股份35.6%31.3%43.8%2.8%-93.9%-62.8%11.7%18.0%-37.4%73.6%品牌服饰运动时尚/中高端男装比音勒芬30.2%-14.3%20.1%41.3%-13.4%30.4%19.0%20.2%28.2%24.5%报喜鸟16.3%-14.5%4.5%13.7%-27.2%13.8%8.7%16.5%16.8%21.3%大众服饰森马服饰0.0%-27.3%-5.8%-40.7%-133.4%-39.8%-4.8%11.4%-36.2%42.7%太平鸟-7.7%-26.1%-15.4%-6.4%-127.4%-86.5%-7.7%14.5%-40.8%65.9%海澜之家-5.1%-7.2%3.4%-14.2%-31.6%19.2%1.5%10.2%-8.3%17.9%中高端女装锦泓集团0.7%-13.9%0.5%-56.5%-114.4%395.0%8.8%15.8%3.8%37.8%歌力思17.2%-3.7%0.2%-49.7%-96.4%-45.5%10.1%16.4%-31.0%73.2%地素时尚-9.1%-27.6%-7.8%-23.1%-47.9%-25.1%-5.4%15.3%-15.3%23.4%欣贺股份-7.4%-21.6%-11.7%-34.3%-62.2%-42.9%-1.4%18.8%-16.5%39.2%家纺罗莱生活-2.5%-9.2%-9.3%-12.8%-36.3%-18.9%-0.1%12.1%-6.2%18.3%富安娜6.8%-2.3%-5.0%13.8%-9.7%8.2%6.3%11.6%7.0%14.3%水星家纺12.3%-7.2%2.2%7.4%-74.0%-11.9%4.7%12.3%-13.0%20.1%众望布艺7.6%-29.0%-50.1%-9.1%-1.5%-74.8%20.2%23.2%26.9%26.5%资料来源：Wind，预测数据来自Wind一致预期，截止日期2022年10月31日，HTIqRtQpOmMzRtNnMqPmRoOwO8O8QbRoMnNoMmOlOrQoMjMpPpR6MnMmQvPrNsOxNnPtM3For full disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation on all HTI rated stocks, please refer to the latest full report on our website at equities.htisec.comA股重点个股梳理根据wind一致预期，2023年纺织指数PE折价22%，折价幅度居前的企业为华利集团、台华新材、浙江自然。表：A股重点个股估值情况所属行业细分行业公司名称年初P/E目前P/E估值折价率202220232022202320222023纺织制造上游纱线百隆东方8.4x7.8x5.9x 5.9x -30.0%-24.6%华孚时尚15.0x12.6x9.1x 7.7x -39.2%-39.0%富春染织14.8x14.1x11.9x 8.6x -19.8%-39.0%新澳股份10.5x8.1x8.7x 7.1x -17.2%-12.4%下游服装辅