宏观月报：2022年10月–国内复苏继续受疫情影响，联储加息有望进入缓行

宏观经济 | 2022 年 10 月 31 日 分析师认证和其他重要披露信息参见尾页. 1 报告摘要分  主要发达国家滞胀压力不减，但央行加息年底前可能减速：欧美 9 月通胀压力仍在高位，但大幅收紧的货币政策导致经济下行压力加大并加剧对金融风险的担忧。我们预计美联储在 11 月份将加息 75个点，但可能暗示加息步伐在之后放缓以评估收紧效果。不过，预计美国通胀将到明年年中才会实质性缓解，联储会在明年上半年继续收紧。随着货币紧缩进入缓行期，加上英国财政重回审慎，全球利率的上行压力将有所回落。我们维持未来数月 2 年和 10 年美国债收益率中位数在 4.3%-4.5%和 3.8%-4.0%的预测。但政策路径仍存不确定性，市场对政策判断的分歧加大，利率波动预计仍较高。  9 月和三季度中国经济持续复苏但消费乏力，短期政策预计继续稳增长。三季度经济增速反弹超预期，得益于强劲的工业产出和出口的韧性。汽车，装备制造业和高技术制造业仍是行业亮点。基建投资和制造业投资的强劲抵消了房地产投资的下滑。但由于区域疫情的影响，居民生活和出行受限，消费与服务业整体表现偏弱。预计疫情将继续影响经济复苏，我们将全年经济增长预期从之前的 4.8%下调至 3.9%。二十大延续高质量增长的政策基调，强调推进中国式现代化，肯定防疫方式和成绩。短期预计政策继续稳增长稳地产，关注十二月中央经济会议的政策布局。  人民币兑美元汇率继续偏弱，但相对其他货币仍较坚挺：人民币兑美元汇率近期显著走弱，一度超过7.3。强美元和中国经济的下行压力是近期人民币兑美元走弱的主要原因。但强劲的贸易顺差仍支撑人民币一篮子汇率维持坚挺。我们预计中国人民银行将继续容忍人民币兑美元汇率的双向弹性，避免汇率水平大幅偏离基本面。但同时央行可能利用政策工具防止人民币汇率的过度波动。持续的强美元意味着相对弱的人民币。我们预计人民币对美元汇率近期可能在 7-7.3 区间徘徊。 下月重点关注：国际数据方面，需要关注欧美国家通胀及就业数据，联储 11 月议息会议以及全球市场的流动性。国内宏观经济方面，关注经济活动数据，以及相关的稳增长和行业政策。 Main points:  Monetary tightening might enter a slower phase in advanced economies despite persistent stagflation pressure. Inflationary pressure remained high in September while sharply tightened monetary policy led to slower growth and heightened concerns over financial stability. We expect the Fed to raise rates by 75 points at its November meeting before resorting to a slower pace of rate hikes in December in order to gauge the impact of front-loaded tightening. We do not expect inflation to ease meaningfully until 2H 2023F, implying more rate hikes in 1H 2023F. Upward pressure on global rates may ease if the pace of monetary tightening slows and fiscal tightening in the UK is re-established. We maintain our forecasts for 2-year and 10-year US bond yields at 4.3-4.5% and 3.8%-4.0%, respectively. However, hightened uncertainty over future monetary policy means continued high volatility in global interest rates.  Domestic recovery in China continued in 3Q22 and September; but consumption remains soft. We expect near-term policy to focus on stabilising growth. The recent rebound in growth beat market expectations in 3Q22, helped by strong industrial output and resilient exports. Auto, equipment manufacturing, and high-tech manufacturing remain the bright spots. Heavy investment in infrastructure and manufacturing offset weakness in real estate investment. However, people’s mobility was hindered by local Covid outbreaks. Consumption and services were soft. The impact of Covid restrictions on the economy will persist, in our view. Thus, we lower our full-year economic growth forecast from 4.8% to 3.9%. The 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China remains focused on high-quality growth, promoting the goal of Chinese-style modernization, and affirming the virtues of the Zero Covid policy. Policy in the near-term is likely to remain focused on stabilizing growth. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is the next policy highlight.  USD/CNY fluctuated at recent highs, but the renminbi held firm against other currencies. The renminbi weaken