新兴经济体发展2018年度报告

II 图书在版编目（CIP）数据 博鳌亚洲论坛新兴经济体发展 2018 年度报告. —北 京：对外经济贸易大学出版社，2018.3 ISBN 978-7-5663-1903-6 Ⅰ. ①博… Ⅱ. Ⅲ. ①经济发展−研究报告−亚洲− 2018 Ⅳ. ①F130.4 中国版本图书馆 CIP 数据核字（2018）第 044339 号 ⓒ 2018 年 对外经济贸易大学出版社出版发行 版权所有 翻印必究 博鳌亚洲论坛新兴经济体发展 2018 年度报告 责任编辑：李晨光 张俊娟 对 外 经 济 贸 易 大 学 出 版 社 北京市朝阳区惠新东街 10 号 邮政编码：100029 邮购电话：010 − 64492338 发行部电话：010 − 64492342 网址：http://www.uibep.com E-mail：uibep@126.com 北京金康利印刷有限公司印装 新华书店经销 成品尺寸：215mm×278mm 7.25 印张 186 千字 2018 年 3 月北京第 1 版 2018 年 3 月第 1 次印刷 ISBN 978-7-5663-1903-6 定价：180.00 元 III 序言 ······································································ Ⅸ 第 1 章 导论 ··························································· 1 1.1 2017 年总体形势 ·························································································· 1 1.2 2018 年形势展望 ·························································································· 4 第 2 章 经济增长 ····················································· 7 2.1 经济增速显著提升 ························································································ 7 2.2 净出口对经济增长的贡献上升 ······································································· 12 2.3 积极向好的增长态势或将延续 ······································································· 15 第 3 章 就业与收入 ················································ 19 3.1 多数国家失业率上升 ··················································································· 19 3.2 收入下降但分配改善 ··················································································· 26 第 4 章 物价与货币政策 ·········································· 31 4.1 通货膨胀得到较好控制 ················································································ 31 4.2 货币政策调整空间有限 ················································································ 34 第 5 章 国际贸易 ··················································· 39 5.1 贸易增长强劲且更趋平衡 ············································································· 39 5.2 贸易保护主义仍值得警惕 ············································································· 45 5.3 贸易合作呈现新趋势 ··················································································· 48 第 6 章 国际直接投资 ············································· 57 6.1 直接投资增长乏力且分化明显 ······································································· 57 IV 6.2 投资环境总体持续改善 ················································································ 64 第 7 章 大宗商品 ··················································· 69 7.1 能源类大宗商品价格显著回升 ······································································· 70 7.2 金属类大宗商品价格延续上年涨势 ································································· 74 7.3 贵金属类大宗商品价格总体平稳 ···································································· 76 7.4 化肥类大宗商品价格整体下滑 ······································································· 76 7.5 农产品类大宗商品价格多数平稳 ···································································· 77 7.6 国际大宗商品价格对 E11 的影响显著 ································