维他奶国际(00345.HK)2022财年收入符合预期，但利润率不及预期

See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 Equity Research Equity Research Report 证 券 研 究 报 告 Company Report 股票研究 公司报告 证券研究报告 [Table_Info1] 消费行业-食品饮料 Consumer Sector-Food & Beverage [Table_Info2] 维他奶国际 Vitasoy International (00345 HK) [Table_Title] Company Report: Vitasoy International (00345 HK) 中文版 Andy Chen 陈思超 (852) 2509 2665 公司报告： 维他奶国际 (00345 HK) Chinese Version andy.chen@gtjas.com.hk 6 July 2022 [Table_Summary] FY22 Revenue in Line but Profitability Missed 2022财年收入符合预期，但利润率不及预期  Vitasoy's FY22 total revenue was in line with our previous estimation but profitability missed. Mainland China sales shrunk 23.4% YoY (or 28% YoY in terms of RMB) to HK$3,838 mn in FY22 due to resurgences in local COVID-19 epidemic and the impact from the PR crisis in July 2021 on its peak season sales in 1HFY22. Notably, the YoY decline in mainland China sales in 2HFY22 narrowed to 15% in terms of RMB. Revenue from Hong Kong/ Australia and New Zealand/ Singapore achieved resilient YoY growth of 4%/ 12%/ 2% (in respective local currencies), respectively. Gross margin dropped 5.4 ppt YoY to 47.2% in FY22. EBITDA plunged 73% YoY to HK$340 mn. Overall, Vitasoy reported shareholders' loss of HK$159 mn in FY22.  Expecting Vitasoy to achieve steady top-line growth with resilient gross margin since 2HFY23. We expect mainland China sales to be HK$4,069 mn/ HK$4,475 mn/ HK$4,945 mn in FY23-FY25, respectively. In addition, revenue from overseas markets will maintain solid growth momentum. In response to higher raw material costs, the management plans to 1) enhance long-term procurement arrangement with its strategic partners and suppliers, 2) broaden sourcing scope of major inputs, and 3) adopt price hikes.  Maintain "Neutral". For Vitasoy, challenges still remain ahead, especially due to softening consumer sentiment and rising cost pressure. It is worth waiting for a more visible turning point in its fundamentals, but so far the negatives have been priced in. Given lower earnings forecasts, our DCF-based TP is HK$13.20, equivalent to 44.0x FY24F PER and 24.0x FY25F PER.  2022 财年维他奶的总营收符合我们此前的估计，利润率却有所不及。2022 财年中国内地市场销售同比减少 23.4%（以人民币计：同比减少 28%）至 38.38 亿港元，归咎于新冠疫情的持续影响以及 2021 年 7 月的公关危机对 2022 财年上半年旺季动销的冲击。值得注意的是，2022 财年下半年中国内地市场销售的同比跌幅（以人民币计）收窄至 15%。以当地货币计，香港、澳大利亚与新西兰、新加坡市场的收入分别录得 4%/ 12%/ 2%的同比增长。2022 财年毛利率同比下跌 5.4 个百分点至 47.2%。EBITDA 同比大跌 73%至 3.40 亿港元。总体来看，维他奶列报 2022 财年股东净亏损为 1.59 亿港元。  维他奶有望自 2023 财年下半年录得稳健的收入增长以及富有韧性的毛利率。我们预计， 2023-2025 财年维他奶中国内地市场销售分别达到 40.69 亿港元/ 44.75 亿港元/ 49.45 亿港元。而海外市场的收入将保持坚实的增长动能。有鉴于较高的原材料成本，管理层计划1）协同战略合作伙伴（供应商），巩固长期采购协议，2）拓宽大宗物料采购的区域范围，以及 3）施行产品提价。  维持“中性”。对于维他奶而言，挑战仍存在，尤其是受到消费情绪不振和成本压力陡增的影响。等候公司更为可见的基本面拐点是值得的，而负面因素应该也已经反映在股价上。我们将盈利预测下调，基于 DCF 估值所得到的目标价为 13.20 港元，对应 44.0 倍的 2024财年预测市盈率和 24.0 倍的 2025 财年预测市盈率。 [Table_Rank] Rating: Neutral Maintained 评级： 中性 (维持) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价： HK$13.20 Revised from 原目标价： HK$14.78 Share Price 股价： HK$12.620 Stock Performance 股价表现