全球房地产行业-实际通货膨胀的实际资产

ab21 June 2022Global Research and Evidence LabThe AnalyserReal Assets for Real InflationCollective wisdom turned on its headThe collective wisdom – a 'lower for longer' environment – has been turned on its head. Inflation is soaring and borrowing costs rising rapidly. This is causing major gyrations in global capital markets, with the investment community scrambling for inflation protection amid stretched valuations across assets. With the recent rise in borrowing costs, yield spreads for commercial real estate have fallen below their long term average in most markets - a more challenging backdrop for real estate investment. Yet, as a 'real asset', real estate should see some tailwinds from inflation. We publish our mid-year Global Real Estate analyser, taking a deep-dive both top-down and bottom-up across the major themes as our team of 30 global real estate analysts see them. How to position for inflation? How do rising rates impact real estate? Where is relative value across regions and sectors? And much more.Real Assets for Real InflationAs a real asset, real estate ought to work relative well through inflationary times – theory and empirical evidence suggests so too. Indeed, our US Economists have found Real Estate has the best pricing power across the market. But there are many nuances around the asset and liability side of the listed real estate companies. On the asset side, we focus on two crucial questions: (1) What is the pricing power of the sub-sector? and (2) To what extent is this factored into the cap rate? On the liability side, excessive leverage and, crucially, the degree to which interest rates have been hedged, is key. Reflected in sector down 21% YTD, unwinding outperformanceThe sector has already dropped 21% YTD, in line with the market. The 7% outperformance to end-April has been fully unwound by underperformance since then. This takes valuation to 23% PNAV discount, over 1SD cheaper than its 30y history. However, on an implied cap rate basis, the story is different - 5.3% globally, 1SD lower than the 6.5% historic level. This represents more of a challenge to the sector in the context of rising rates.Top picks(UK) Derwent London, British Land; (Cont. Europe) Azrieli, CTP, Cofinimmo; (Singapore) CAPN, CICT, City Developments; (Hong Kong) Link REIT; (China) COLI, CR Land, BEKE; (Japan) Mitsui Fudosan, United Urban; (Australia) GPT, Stockland, Lendlease, Scentre; (US) Prologis, Equity Resi., Realty Income, Sun Communities, Extra Space Storage, Kimco Realty, Equity LifeStyle Properties, SBAC, AMT, Equinix, JLL.This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 276. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investo