亚太地区互联网服务行业-印度尼西亚互联网：瑞银证据实验室内部报告-电商们在说什么？

ab22 June 2022Global Research and Evidence LabPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESIndonesia InternetUBS Evidence Lab inside: What are e-commerce merchants saying?Conclusions from second survey of e-commerce merchantsThe second wave of UBS Evidence Lab survey of e-commerce merchants in Indonesia (> Access Dataset) offers five key conclusions: i) e-commerce penetration continues to deepen with more merchants from Tier2-3 cities and existing merchants seeing more orders from smaller towns; ii) Shopee and Tokopedia maintain dominance, while Tiktok Shop is emerging as a new challenger; iii) Take rates are surprisingly down YoY although merchants are willing to pay 4-5% more for greater visibility; iv) logistics increase in importance while cost of shipping is up 40-100% vs previous survey; and; v) adoption of e-wallets has increased but remains within "sister platforms" implying limited customerstickiness around e-wallets. The survey results are supportive of our view that e-commerce penetration will continue to increase, benefiting Shopee and Tokopedia, butalso means margin improvement will be gradual. We maintain Buy on Sea, but initiateon GoTo (link) with Sell given expensive valuations.Shopee and Lazada are neck-to-neck, while TikTok Shop building momentumAmong the respondents, representation from Jakarta and Surabaya was down, whereas other cities' contribution was up. 52% of respondents are selling online for more than 2 years vs 45% in previous survey pointing towards deepening penetration of e-commerce although respondents did see a slight dip in % of sales online likely due to re-openings. Looking at platforms, Tokopedia and Shopee are neck to neck and Tokopedia has eliminated the gap with Shopee as the platform that generated most sales (both tied at 28% each). Less than 12 months into launch, TikTok Shop has built strong momentum with 39% of respondents having used the platform and the platform already ranking number four as the platform that generated most sales. Among incumbents, Shopee seems the be leading the "live streaming" bandwagon with 79% of sellers on the platform having used the live stream feature vs. Tokopedia at 58%. Take rates broadly flat, but focus on other areas of cash burnAverage order value has increased vs previous wave (+25% for Shopee and Tokopedia), due to maturing consumer behaviour and likely higher thresholds for free delivery. That said, take rates appear to be lower vs previous survey which is contrary to rising take rates reported by platforms. We believe this is due to a greater number of smaller merchants in this survey (which have lower commissions) but also perhaps due to lower VAS (which optically reduces amounts paid by merchants but is not margin dilutive to platforms). On the positive side, merchants appear willing to pay 4-5% extra for better visibility which leaves room for take rate improvement. Logistics increasing in importance, but e-wallet stickiness is still lowSellers have highlighted logist